Carolina Panthers vs. Dallas Cowboys Odds & Game Pick (2021)

Oct 2, 2021 - 2:39 AM

Are the upstart Carolina Panthers for real? We’re about to find out, as Carolina faces its toughest test of the season on the road against the Dallas Cowboys. Both teams are off to solid starts and could be NFC playoff contenders. But who has the edge in this conference crossover? Let’s break it down:

Bet $10, Win $200 if Your Team Scores a TD >>

Details

• Opening line: Dallas -5
• Current line: Dallas -4.5
• Total: 51.5

Panthers looking to prove legitimacy without CMC 

Carolina has arguably been the biggest surprise of the 2021 season thus far. The Panthers are 3-0 with new quarterback Sam Darnold, but two of those wins have come against the lowly New York Jets and Houston Texans.

While the Panthers are sporting a perfect record, their injury luck has been far from perfect. The most significant blow came to star tailback Christian McCaffrey, who will be sidelined for at least a couple of weeks with a hamstring injury. Carolina’s top-ranked defense also suffered a couple of injuries to its secondary, as starting cornerbacks Jaycee Horn and Juston Burris were both placed on injured reserve this week. These injuries prompted Carolina to acquire former Jaguars first-round pick C.J. Henderson earlier this week. Henderson’s expected to play with less than a week to learn his new defense.

Darnold is benefitting from a much-needed change of scenery. He’s only been sacked six times this year and has thrown for 888 yards and three touchdowns in his first three games. Most importantly, Darnold is taking care of the football and has given the ball away just two times this season.

Now, Carolina will be without its star player in its toughest test of the season. Chuba Hubbard and Royce Freeman will be asked to shoulder the load in McCaffrey’s absence. I also expect Carolina to rely more on Darnold and pass catchers D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson, and Terrace Marshall Jr. The Panthers offense was already in the middle of the pack in points scored and yards per play. I don’t see it improving with McCaffrey out.

Carolina’s defense has emerged as one of the league’s best through three games. They rank second in points allowed and first in yards per play allowed. Carolina is anchored by a young and talented front seven headlined by Brian Burns, Haason Reddick, and Derrick Brown. The Panthers lead the league with 15 sacks and have generated pressure on 45.2% of their opponents’ dropbacks this season. The next closest team in that category is Buffalo with a 33.9% pressure rate. The Panthers have also been elite against the run, holding teams to just 2.6 yards per carry through the first three games.

While my early inclination is that this Panthers defense is legit, it must be noted that they’ve faced Zach Wilson in his NFL debut, the turnover-prone Jameis Winston and Davis Mills thus far. With key injuries in the secondary, Carolina will need to dominate the trenches.

Check out all of our game previews and picks for the week >>

Dallas seeking another statement win 

The Dallas Cowboys have been pretty much what we expected through their first three games. Their prolific offensively and mediocre defensively.

The Dallas defends bends, but doesn’t break. The Cowboys are surrendering 6.7 yards per play and almost 38 yards per opponent’s drive. However, they lead the league with eight takeaways and have given up a touchdown on just six of their 11 defensive red zone trips. That’s why the Cowboys are giving up just 1.91 yards per drive.

This Cowboys defense has talent, though. Rookie linebacker Micah Parsons looks to be a home run first-round pick. Cornerback Trevon Diggs has also emerged as a budding star and has an interception in each of his first three games.

Dallas has gone from pathetic defensively in 2020 to mediocre, and that’s all it needs to be with its potent offense.

The Cowboys have been as good as advertised offensively. But most importantly, they’ve been balanced. Dallas ranks 10th in passing and fourth in rushing. Ezekiel Elliott remains the lead back, but Tony Pollard has emerged and has occasionally looked better than Elliott at times. Dak Prescott has been highly efficient, completing 77.5% of his passes thus far.

The Cowboys are clearly the best team in the NFC East, but I still have questions regarding this team’s ceiling.

Bottom Line

This isn’t a game I’m in love with, as -4.5 is kind of in the dead zone. The Panthers have a huge preparation advantage, as they played on Thursday night while Dallas played on Monday night. And the Panthers have the coaching advantage with Matt Rhule over Mike McCarthy.

But the absence of McCaffrey might be too much for this offense to overcome. Darnold’s done well through his first three games, but he’s never had to do too much to get Carolina across the finish line. I also worry about the matchup between Carolina’s banged-up secondary against Prescott, Amari Cooper, and CeeDee Lamb. Carolina’s short-handed secondary hasn’t faced an offense with this many playmakers.

This game may make you sweaty, but I’d take Dallas to win and cover.

The pick: Cowboys -4.5 (play up to -5.5)

Bet $10, Win $200 if Your Team Scores a TD >>

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our 101 section — including How to Bet on Sports — or head to more advanced strategy — like 10 Tips to Become a Sharper Sports Bettor — to learn more.

Matt Barbato is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Matt, check out his archive and follow him @RealMattBarbato.

The post Carolina Panthers vs. Dallas Cowboys Odds & Game Pick (2021) appeared first on BettingPros.