NFL Player Prop Bets: Week 4 (2021)

Oct 2, 2021 - 9:52 AM

Once again, I’m using DraftKings Sportsbook for props because of the volume of player props they have to pick from. Still, I suggest line shopping for more favorable player totals across multiple sportsbooks if you have the available time to do so. For instance, finding a lower yardage number for a player prop you like to go over enhances your odds of cashing. Conversely, if you want an under and find a higher yardage total, the same idea applies.

Let’s take a look at a few player props for Week 4 that caught my attention.

View the best player prop bets for this week’s slate with our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

Cooper Kupp and Van Jefferson Jr: 100+ Receiving Yards Each (+2200)

Let’s start with a longshot bet that requires only a small wager for a sizable payout. The Rams and Cardinals are set to square off in a projected shootout at a brisk pace. Betting Pros lists the Rams as 4.5-point favorites in a game with a total of 54.0 points. In addition, Football Outsiders credits the Rams with the fastest situation neutral pace, and the Cardinals rank 14th. However, there’s potential for this to be played faster than Arizona’s mid-pack pace suggests, as they ranked fourth in 2019 and first in 2020, with Kliff Kingsbury at the helm those years as well.

The pace and high score portend well for players to pile up yardage. As for Cooper Kupp and Van Jefferson Jr. specifically, the case for Kupp going over 100 yards writes itself. He’s leading the NFL with 122.3 receiving yards per game, eclipsing 100 yards in two of three games, falling short only four yards in last week’s 10-point win.

However, Jefferson’s case comes down to usage rather than production to date. According to Pro Football Focus, Jefferson’s 83 routes are the second-most on the Rams. So, yes, he’s run more routes than Robert Woods and Tyler Higbee. The second-year receiver’s usage is promising, and his big-play ability aids his cause for 100-plus receiving yards. Jefferson has a 95th-percentile 40-yard dash time and 89th-percentile speed score, per Player Profiler, and he used his jets to reel in a 67-yard touchdown in Week 1. He’s not as big of a longshot to break 100 yards this game as it might appear, so I like springing a small wager on this +2200 teammate parlay.

Place the bet now >>

Jaylen Waddle Over 3.5 Receptions (-160)

Jaylen Waddle is the apple of backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett’s eye. Supporting that, Brissett’s 19 hucked of his 89 passes Waddle’s direction, resulting in 17 receptions for Waddle. Last week, Waddle reeled in 12 of 13 targets. He’s amassed four or more receptions in all three games.

The speedy rookie’s usage is ideal for going over his 3.5 receptions prop, too. According to Sports Info Solutions, he has a shallow average depth of target of only 4.3 yards downfield. As a result, the shorter targets have a higher percentage chance of completion. In addition, they’ll play well against the Colts’ Cover-2 zone defense, as Hayden Winks discussed before Week 1 and tweeted about back in late August.

Looking at some @SportsInfo_SIS coverage data. The big difference for fantasy purposes is Cover 2 zone vs. the rest of them.

Against C2 zone, a higher % of the targets to WRs are shallow (5 or fewer air yards). pic.twitter.com/SYDTnUy6O5

— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) August 31, 2021

I love this bet, and I’m willing to lay the juice on the over. Further, if the line moves to 4.5 receptions, I still like the over.

Place the bet now >>

Kyle Pitts Over 4.5 Receptions (+130)

Finally, I’m a fan of another rookie going over his receptions total. Thankfully, we’re getting plus odds on this one. Kyle Pitts has caught more than 4.5 passes in only one of three games. However, his usage and offensive role hint at more significant showings in the offing.

Pitts has run the second-most routes (104) on the Falcons, shifting all over the formation, playing 31 passing snaps inline, 33 wide, and 53 from the slot. This week, he might have his coming-out party in a game I’m expecting to shoot out.

The Falcons are playing at the 11th-fastest situation neutral pace, and they’ll receive a pace pick-me-up against the Football Team, as they play at the ninth-fastest pace. Additionally, the matchup is favorable. According to Football Outsiders, Washington ranks 28th in Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). They also haven’t been tested much by tight ends, facing a mediocre group thus far. However, Jared Cook hauled in five of eight targets against them in Week 1. Pitts is probably Washington’s most significant challenge at the position since Week 1, so I think he’ll be the second tight end to haul in five or more passes in a possible shootout this week.

Place the bet now >>

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our 101 section — including How to Bet on Sports — or head to more advanced strategy — like 10 Tips to Become a Sharper Sports Bettor — to learn more.

Bet $10, Win $200 if Your Team Scores a TD >>

Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

The post NFL Player Prop Bets: Week 4 (2021) appeared first on BettingPros.