NFL Best Bet for Seahawks at Steelers: Sunday Night Football (Week 6)

Oct 17, 2021 - 3:56 PM

If you’re like me, you fall victim to the Sunday scaries every week. The crushing reality of work yet-to-be-done starts to sink in sometime in the afternoon, and it’ll ruin the rest of the day if you let it. Fortunately, it doesn’t have to — just change the channel to ESPN! It’s much easier to procrastinate with Sunday Night Football occupying your attention.

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Picks YTD: 5-1-0 (+2.29u)
All NFL Bets YTD: 20-17-0 (-0.59u)

Geno Smith o18.5 Rushing Yards | -115 at PointsBet

I’m sorry, what? The books messed up with this line. Geno Smith ran for 23 yards on three attempts against the Rams last week. Considering that he came into the game in the fourth quarter, it feels safe to target the over here.

I’ll grant you that the Steelers have a solid rushing defense. They have given up the ninth-fewest total rushing yards (502) and the 12th-fewest to quarterbacks (73). That said, they haven’t played the most mobile of guys. From Weeks 2 to 5, they faced Derek Carr, Joe Burrow, Aaron Rodgers, and Teddy Bridgewater. Those four accumulated less than 30 rushing yards. However, the Steelers faced Josh Allen in Week, and he racked up 44 rushing yards on nine carries.

I like this pick because Geno Smith will have to run for his life tonight. Pittsburgh pressures opposing quarterbacks on 28.6% of their defensive snaps, the fifth-best rate in the league. Meanwhile, Seattle’s offensive line ranks seventh-worst in adjusted sack rate (8.2%). However, I don’t expect Pittsburgh to actually sack Smith that often. Despite their excellent pressure percentage, the Steelers are tied for the 10th-fewest sacks (10) with six other teams.

Smith won’t have much time in the pocket, so he’ll inevitably end up scrambling on passing plays. At 31 years old, Smith may no longer have the burst that led to his impressive 4.59-second 40-yard dash time, but he should have enough gas in the tank to cash this prop.

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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.

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