NFL Betting: What We Learned from Week 6 (2021)

Oct 18, 2021 - 10:40 AM

Let’s not get spoiled.

Last week, I wrote about how impactful the games were on both the standings and perceptions. Week 5 was a gift in that regard.

Week 6 did not continue along this trend.

Of course, there were some compelling games — this is the National Football League, after all! — but the main bulk of contests either continued furthering a narrative or were simply noncompetitive.

Thankfully, they were also valuable because there’s always something to learn from a full slate of action.

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The NFC West is now a Two-Team Race

Perhaps the most surprising outcome of the first six weeks of the NFL season is not that the NFC West has the only remaining undefeated team nor that it is still a powerhouse in a sense, but that only two of the teams are contributing to said powerhouse status. The Cardinals and Rams are a combined 11-1, with the only loss between the two teams being a head-to-head battle a defeat was imminent for one side.

The Seahawks and 49ers entered the season with just as much a chance to compete for a championship as anyone else in the league, but injuries and inconsistent play have pushed both to the bottom of the loaded division. Neither appears to have a realistic chance to catch either of the top two teams, which means that a division that could have produced three playoff teams is probably going to yield only one Wild Card berth, albeit one with double-digit wins.

If we’re looking for a takeaway that can produce some action, the best approach is to not forget about the two teams trailing noticeably behind the others. San Francisco and Seattle will carry some value in the future.

The Green Bay Packers are Still Kings of the North

When his career is over, Aaron Rodgers will be remembered for the countless times the sports media questioned his lasting power, only to be proven wrong in the end. The Green Bay Packers opened 2021 with one of Rodgers’ worst losses, immediately following an offseason of drama in which Rodgers was the centerpiece. What has happened since? The Packers went 5-0, including two divisional victories.

The most recent of which gave Green Bay the separation it needed in a race that was quietly becoming closer.

The Packers went on the road to face a Bears team that had crept over .500 with a 3-2 record. Chicago was within one game of first place and would have had the rightful claim to the title with a victory over the Packers.

It didn’t happen.

Green Bay has now completely erased the memory and sting of Week 1’s loss. The only problem? The Packers will soon carry a premium, and it might be too expensive to continue buying into them.

The Dallas Cowboys Won’t Stop, and the New England Patriots Won’t Start

The latter half of that title is a bit harsh, as the Patriots have played far better in the last few weeks compared to the first three, but we’re still looking at a 2-4 franchise after a heartbreaking overtime loss at home to the Cowboys.

The same Cowboys who are now 5-1 with a commanding lead in the NFC East.

I linked these two teams together for the obvious reason that they just played arguably the most memorable game of a relatively drama-less Week 6, but their connection goes a little deeper than that.

Both the Patriots and Cowboys are teams for which I will constantly highlight their name value. When either wins, the reaction is big. When either loses, the reaction is also big. Neither can fly under the radar in any direction, as long as they have a direction — and are not sputtering around mediocrity.

The Cowboys certainly have their arrow pointing straight up, so the next step is to find their peak and sell. The Patriots? We might still have time to catch a ride up the mountain and buy in now before the potential surge begins.

The Baltimore Ravens Win a Statement Game

Things change quickly in the National Football League. After a Week 1 loss on national television, the Baltimore Ravens were being sold by basically everyone in the sports media. Not only have they won five consecutive games, but they just dominated the team that was the new “Team to Beat.”

Again, things change quickly.

The Chiefs went to back-to-back Super Bowls — winning one — but the Chargers beat them. The Ravens then annihilated the Chargers and, by some version of some transitive property, Baltimore is currently the class of the AFC.

Maybe.

That’s how it appears to work, anyway. There’s a constant shifting of power that takes place over the course of the season, and that’s why it’s important to follow the ride for the ups and downs. Baltimore has passed every test, but no team is perfect. Proceed with caution as the next drop on the ride lies somewhere ahead.

The Kansas City Chiefs are Back…Again

If we’ve learned anything from the first six weeks of the 2021 season, it’s that we are, indeed, still approaching the middle of the longest campaign in history. Through just six weeks, the Chiefs have been praised, doubted, praised again, doubted again, and then victorious in another convincing thrashing of an opponent.

There are still eleven more games to be played for the Chiefs.

Kansas City has earned both the accolades and criticisms of the past few weeks, but we need to put both in the proper context. Indeed, there were losses because regression is extremely likely after the number of wins the team has accumulated over the last few years. Conversely, those wins are a sign that Kansas City can handle any opponent on a given weekend, and we should not forget that.

Unfortunately, the biggest takeaway from the Chiefs’ most recent victory is that others will start to climb aboard the bandwagon. There is still a long enough runway to capture some value before liftoff, but it likely won’t last long.

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Mario Mergola is a featured writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros, as well as the creator and content-editor of Sporfolio. For more from Mario, check out his archive and follow him @MarioMergola. He has also been one of the industry leaders in NFL against-the-spread picks over the last 7 years.

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