Washington Commanders NFL Betting Preview: Odds, Picks & Best Bet (2022)

Jul 25, 2022 - 10:19 AM

The summer is here, and the start of the NFL season will be here before we know it. Now is the time to start digging into NFL futures, both for team futures and player futures. NFL futures can be great ways to profit during the upcoming season. We’ll have you covered throughout the offseason with updated news and odds for all futures and Week 1 odds. Let’s take a look at updated 2022 NFL team win totals and futures odds.

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What are Team Futures?

Futures refers to any team-based wager for a future event or a result. These bets often do not pay out until weeks or even months from when they are originally placed. Bets for Win Totals and the Super Bowl winner are good examples of team futures bets.

New QB, new name, better results? Washington had a solid offseason, upgrading their passing game via the signing of Carson Wentz and the drafting of Penn State WR Jahan Dotson. The defense was a liability in 2021, ranking bottom 10 in the NFL in yards and points allowed, but the hope in DC is that these offensive additions plus a (hopefully) healthy Chase Young will be enough to get back to the postseason.

Let’s break down the Commanders’ futures for 2022:

Washington Commanders Super Bowl Odds: +8000

PARTICIPANTS AND SELECTIONS
COMMANDERS	+7000	+6600	+7000	+7000	+7000	+8000	+8000	+8000

While it would be a shock to the league if the Commanders were actually able to pull off a Super Bowl win this season, the +8000 price offered is enough to at least give the odds a look.

In order for the Commanders’ extreme bull case to play out in 2022, they’ll need at least some of the following to play out:

Carson Wentz playing the best football of his career, and putting up an MVP-level season
Chase Young to return fully healthy and pick up where he left off as one of the most dominant pass-rushers in the league
Dotson pairing with Terry McLaurin and Antonio Gibson to become one of the better groups of offensive playmakers in the NFL
A re-tooled offensive line to be a major improvement on the unit that allowed 43 sacks in 2021 (10th worst in the NFL).

Is it likely that all these components come together? No. And even if they do, I think I’d prefer my exposure to the Commanders to be on a more attainable futures bet than a Super Bowl Championship. Even if they somehow do represent the NFC, they’ll very likely be significant underdogs to one of the AFC powerhouse teams such as Buffalo or Kansas City, and will almost certainly have the inferior QB in any hypothetical matchup.

Washington Commanders Conference Winner Odds: +3300

PARTICIPANTS AND SELECTIONS
COMMANDERS	+3000	+3000	+3100	+3000	+3000	+3000	+3300	+3300

While a conference championship is a more feasible goal for this year’s Washington team, it still feels like a longshot that isn’t worth taking at the +3300 price. Some would point to last year’s Cincinnati team as proof that under-the-radar teams in the preseason can get hot at the right time and become surprise conference champions, however, that team had a promising young QB, a top-five pick, and free-agent signings on both sides of the ball that made sense within the system the team ran. Washington has made some solid pickups this offseason, but they don’t seem to have the upside that last year’s Bengals team did on paper.

While it’s not impossible that everything goes well enough for Washington to make the jump to NFC Champion this year, I’m still staying off this future at the current price.

Washington Commanders Division Winner Odds: +500

PARTICIPANTS AND SELECTIONS
COMMANDERS	+500	+500	+500	+500	+500	+500	+500	+500

The Commanders to win their division is where I believe these futures start to get more feasible. The NFC East is going to be one of the most interesting divisions in the NFL this year:

Dallas comes in as a favorite after a strong season in 2021.
Philadelphia looks to be greatly improved with the signing of Haason Reddick, a trade for A.J. Brown, and a draft filled with upside on the defensive side of the ball.
Even the Giants have a coaching staff that looks improved on paper, two top-10 picks joining the team, and a young QB that has shown flashes in Daniel Jones.

This division is historically one where parity rules — no team has been a repeat winner since Philadelphia in 2004, nearly 20 years ago. And while every team in the division has a path to improvement this year, there’s certainly no runaway favorite that’s guaranteed a high seed in the NFC East.

I don’t think Washington +500 is a crazy play to win the division, but given the moves of the other teams in the division, I also believe they have the lowest ceiling across the four teams. Their case to win the division is predicated more around a collapse or “failure to launch” among the three other teams in the division, as Washington doesn’t seem to have a clear path to 11+ wins this season. For that reason, I’d opt to pass on these odds as well.

Washington Commanders To Make Playoffs Odds: +175 Yes/-200 No

PARTICIPANTS AND SELECTIONS
YES	+165	+165	+166	+150	+165	+160	+175	+175
NO	-200	-200	-205	-185	-200	-190	-220	-220

While the Commanders may lack the upside necessary to make a deep playoff run or roll through their division, they have a high enough floor that making the playoffs in a top-heavy NFC seems to be a very feasible goal. The Buccaneers, Rams, and Packers are the only NFC teams with win total futures over 10 wins, and other teams in front of Washington have major question marks. (Is Trey Lance going to play in San Francisco? Is Kyler Murray motivated and committed to the team in Arizona? How will Philadelphia’s new additions contribute right away?)

With the exception of a down year in 2019, Washington has finished with at least seven wins every year since 2015 — while no season has been stellar in that run, they have consistently been an average team. Add in Carson Wentz, who has posted a QBR of 93 or higher in four of the last five seasons (higher than any Commanders QB since Kirk Cousins), and the case for improvement is clear.

If they can stay healthy, and some of the more questionable teams ahead of them in the preseason pecking order don’t have their upside thesis play out, Washington can absolutely grab a wild card spot this season.

Washington Commanders Win Total O/U: 7.5 (+100/-120)

PARTICIPANTS AND SELECTIONS
OVER	o7.5 -105	o8.5 +140	o8.5 +145	o8.0 -110	o7.5 -135	o7.5 -125	o7.5 -125	o7.5 -125
UNDER	u7.5 -110	u8.5 -165	u8.5 -170	u8.0 -110	u7.5 +110	u7.5 +105	u7.5 +103	u7.5 +103

For the reasons laid out above, I also like the Commanders to go over their 7.5 win total in 2022. Washington was able to get to seven wins last season with Taylor Heinecke’s up-and-down QB play and a difficult schedule. This year’s schedule should provide some relief, as the AFC South and NFC North matchups give Washington games against Houston, Jacksonville, Detroit, and Chicago — all of whom have low projected 2022 win totals. Throw in games against Atlanta and a Cleveland team that could be starting Jacoby Brissett at QB and Washington should be able to pass their 7.5-win threshold if they can get a couple of division wins or pull an upset against a better team on paper (Minnesota, San Francisco, or Indianapolis seem like reasonable spots for this to occur).

With their soft schedule and likely improved QB play, I like the Commanders to go over 7.5 wins in 2022.

Favorite Washington Commanders Futures Bet: Make The Playoffs (+175)

Despite chaos off the field in the last few seasons, the Commanders have been consistently average on the field. They have a weak schedule this year, likely the best QB play in recent seasons with the acquisition of Carson Wentz, and the NFC has plenty of teams with question marks once you get past the top three teams in the conference.

It seems likely that Washington will be in the mix for a wild card spot late, and at the +175 price tag, that’s a chance worth taking.

Matthew Freedman’s Best Bets After the 2022 NFL Draft >>

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The post Washington Commanders NFL Betting Preview: Odds, Picks & Best Bet (2022) appeared first on BettingPros.

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Washington Commanders NFL Betting Preview: Odds, Picks & Best Bet (2022)

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