Top NFL Futures Odds & Picks Using Points For/Points Against: AFC East (2022)

Aug 13, 2022 - 10:35 AM

Using Vegas totals and spreads from each NFL game on SuperBook Colorado, we can estimate the final score to project the number of points for and against each team. Then, we can use the Pythagorean expectation to calculate the number of wins Vegas estimates each team to have. Unless specifically mentioned, we’ve assumed the home team is the favorite, and the away team is the underdog in any pick ‘em.

• Top NFL Futures Odds & Picks Using Points For/Points Against: AFC West
• Top NFL Futures Odds & Picks Using Points For/Points Against: AFC North
• Top NFL Futures Odds & Picks Using Points For/Points Against: AFC South

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Team	Expected Points For	Expected Points Allowed	Pythagorean Win Total	Vegas Win Total
Buffalo Bills	463.25	366.75	10.8	11.5
Miami Dolphins	393.5	390	8.6	8.5
New England Patriots	379.75	377.25	8.6	8.5
New York Jets	345.75	419.75	6.6	5.5

 

Buffalo Bills

• The Bills’ projected 463.25 points are tied for most of any NFL team this season, yet nearly 20 fewer than they scored last season.
• Vegas projects the Bills to allow 366.75 points, the third-fewest, which projects the Bills to win 10.79 games – .70 games fewer than the Vegas total of 11.5.
• With a middling 12th most difficult strength-of-schedule, Buffalo is the projected favorite in 16 games this season, the most of any NFL team. No other team in the AFC East is projected or favored to win more than nine games.

Bet: The Bills to win the division at -200 is very generous. I’ll take that line all day.

Miami Dolphins

• In 2021, Miami scored 341 points. Since then, the offensive unit looks brand new, with Tyreek Hill lining up opposite 2021 rookie standout Jaylen Waddle, as well as new head coach Mike McDaniel’s signings of shiny new runningbacks, including Chase Edmonds, Sony Michel, and Raheem Mostert. The team is projected to score about three more points per game, 393.5.
• As for the defense, Melvin Ingram is the only major addition, and the team is now expected to allow 390.5 points, one more point per game.
• Early Vegas projections have Miami scoring 393.5 and allowing 390, giving them an expected win total of 8.59 wins – right on target with their 8.5-win total for the season. The team is favored in 9 games, which is a slightly encouraging number for over 8.5 wins this season – but there’s not much value from Vegas projections on any Miami futures.

Bet: Lean over if you must.

New England Patriots

• Last season, New England scored the sixth-most points (462) and allowed the second-fewest (303) points. Not much has changed since then. The defense added support in the form of Jabrill Peppers and Mack Wilson, and the offense expects Mac Jones to take a leap forward with newly acquired DeVante Parker.
• Somehow, they’re projected to score the 13th-fewest points, 60 fewer (382.25), while allowing the 10th-fewest (378.75), 82 fewer. If SOS is any indicator, the Patriots’ schedule is even easier this year; the Patriots project to have the 8th easiest schedule vs. the 17th easiest last season.
• New England is favored in eight games this season with a Pythagorean win total right on par with their Vegas win total of 8.5.

Bet: If you expect Mac Jones to take a step forward or at least keep pace with New England’s 8-3 finish at the end of 2021, there’s absolutely value on the Patriots to win over 8.5 games at -120.

New York Jets

• Bottom sixth in expected points for (345.75) and top five in expected points allowed (419.75), Vegas is not high on the New York Jets this season.
• The Jets are favored in a measly three games.
• On the plus side, Vegas has a win total of 5.5 wins, but the Pythagorean expectation puts the Jets at 6.5. 

Bet: There’s some precedent for taking over 5.5 wins here, but I’ll stay far away. 

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