NFL Week 3 Leans for Every Game & Best Bets (2022)

Sep 23, 2022 - 2:38 PM

This season at BettingPros, we’re asking some of our experts to give leans and top picks for every game on the NFL slate. Here are all of their leans, picks, and predictions for Week 3.

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Week 3 Spread Leans for Each Game

Home Team	Away Team	Home Spread	Fitzmaurice	Freedman	Greer	Wolbransky	Santora	MacMillan
IND	KC	6.5	IND	IND	IND	KC	IND	IND
NE	BAL	3	NE	NE	NE	BAL	NE	NE
TB	GB	-2	TB	GB	GB	TB	TB	TB
CLE	PIT	-4.5	PIT	PIT	PIT	PIT	PIT	PIT
MIA	BUF	5.5	BUF	MIA	BUF	BUF	MIA	MIA
CHI	HOU	-3	CHI	CHI	HOU	CHI	CHI	CHI
CAR	NO	3	CAR	CAR	NO	NO	NO	CAR
MIN	DET	-6	DET	DET	DET	DET	DET	MIN
TEN	LV	2	TEN	TEN	TEN	LV	LV	TEN
NYJ	CIN	4.5	CIN	CIN	NYJ	CIN	NYJ	CIN
WAS	PHI	6.5	WAS	WAS	WAS	WAS	WAS	WAS
LAC	JAX	-7	LAC	LAC	JAX	JAX	LAC	LAC
ARI	LAR	4	LAR	ARI	ARI	LAR	LAR	LAR
SEA	ATL	-2	SEA	SEA	ATL	SEA	SEA	ATL
DEN	SF	1.5	DEN	DEN	SF	DEN	DEN	SF
NYG	DAL	-2.5	DAL	DAL	NYG	NYG	DAL	NYG

 

Patriots (+3) vs. Ravens

Even though this year the Ravens are “only” No. 11 with a 43.0% rush rate, they are a running team at their core. But they could struggle to run against the Patriots. No. 1 RB J.K. Dobbins (knee) is yet to return from last year’s season-ending injury. No. 2 RB Gus Edwards (knee, PUP) is out. Additionally, starting LT Ronnie Stanley (ankle) is yet to play this year after appearing in just one game last year and six games the year before that. With all these injuries, the Ravens offense ranks No. 32 in rush DVOA this year — and Ravens HC John Harbaugh is 1-5-1 ATS vs. Patriots HC Bill Belichick. If they can’t run, the Ravens could underwhelm.
–Matthew Freedman

Bills (-5.5) at Dolphins

The Bills defense is elite. We aren’t talking about it enough, but it’s absolutely true. Not only can Josh Allen hang 30+ points in any given week, but the defense held the 2021 AFC #1 seed to 7 points of offense and the defending Super Bowl champs to 10. In a two-game sample size, the Bills have beaten their opponents on an average of 28 points. Last week, Tua and the Dolphins were down 21 points before making a stellar comeback. That won’t happen against this elite Buffalo defense.
– Ben Wolbransky

Broncos (+1.5) vs. 49ers

The Broncos are home underdogs against the 49ers after poor showings against the Seahawks and Texans the first two weeks. Jimmy Garoppolo took over for injured QB Trey Lance in the victory over the Seahawks last week. The Niners will look to keep the ball on the ground, without starter Elijah Mitchell, against a Broncos defense that has given up less than 80 rushing yards per game the first two weeks. It is worth noting Russell Willson won both matchups against Garoppolo and the 49ers last season. I believe Wilson can keep this streak going against a 49ers team that needs to revert their offensive scheme back to game manager Garoppolo.
– Dylan Santora

Bengals (-4.5) at Jets

The Super Bowl hangover has been real in Cincinnati, but what better cure for that hangover than a trip to MetLife Stadium to take on the Jets? The Bengals’ offensive line should be able to keep Joe Burrow on his feet against a Jets defense that has only registered 3 sacks through their first two games, which will allow Burrow to light up this New York defense that has given up 7.4 net yards per pass attempt (28th best) and 2.39 points per possession (26th best). The Jets failed to cover the spread in Week 1, and would have had the same fate last week if Nick Chubb gave himself up instead of scoring a late touchdown. This is a textbook get-right spot for the Bengals, who get the benefit of playing a lowly Jets team that is riding high after a miraculous comeback victory.
– Austin MacMillan

Chargers (-7) vs. Jaguars

The injury to Justin Herbert is obviously a concern, but he appears to have avoided disaster. He’s gotten in two limited practices to start the week, which bodes will for his availability on Sunday. As long as he’s active, the Chargers should be able to dispatch the Jaguars pretty easily. The Jags have been better than expected to start the year, but are a close loss to the Commanders and a win over an injury-decimated Colts squad all that impressive? The Chargers probably should’ve beaten the Chiefs last week on the road, and the fact they played on Thursday Night Football gives them additional time to prepare. Trevor Lawrence has also yet to prove that he can win on the road, posting a record of 0-9 straight up and 2-7 against the spread outside of Jacksonville.
–Matt LaMarca

Steelers (+5) at Browns

The Steelers and Browns are very similar teams. They’re both middle of the pack in terms of Net EPA, point differential, win-loss record, and, perhaps most importantly, both are extremely limited at the quarterback position. Mix this with the fact that divisional opponents statistically tend to play much tighter games, and I have a hard time seeing why the Browns deserve to be more than a field goal favorite. There are, of course, scenarios where the Browns beat the Steelers comfortably (looking at you, Trubisky), but this shouldn’t be the baseline expectation. I like the Steelers from +5 and all the way down to +3.5.
–Robby Greer

Week 3 Total Leans for Each Game

Home Team	Away Team	Over/Under	Fitzmaurice	Freedman	Wolbransky	Santora	MacMillan
IND	KC	50.5	Under	Under	Over	Over	Over
NE	BAL	43.5	Under	Under	Under	Over	Under
TB	GB	42	Over	Under	Under	Over	Under
CLE	PIT	38.5	Over	Over	Over	Over	Under
MIA	BUF	52.5	Under	Under	Under	Over	Over
CHI	HOU	40.5	Under	Over	Under	Over	Under
CAR	NO	40.5	Over	Under	Under	Over	Over
MIN	DET	53.5	Under	Under	Under	Under	Over
TEN	LV	45.5	Under	Under	Under	Under	Under
NYJ	CIN	45	Under	Over	Under	Under	Under
WAS	PHI	47.5	Over	Over	Over	Over	Over
LAC	JAX	47.5	Under	Over	Over	Over	Under
ARI	LAR	49.5	Over	Under	Under	Over	Under
SEA	ATL	42	Over	Over	Over	Over	Over
DEN	SF	46	Under	Under	Under	Over	Under
NYG	DAL	39.5	Over	Under	Over	Over	Over

 

Rams vs. Cardinals UNDER 49.5

The Cardinals might have the worst secondary in the league, but the Rams haven’t quite figured it out on offense yet this season. Perhaps it’s the injury to field-stretcher Van Jefferson, or maybe the lack of targets to Allen Robinson, but the Rams are averaging just about 20 points on offense per game. The Cardinals have struggled against superstar tight ends Travis Kelce and Darren Waller. Cooper Kupp is obviously an elite weapon, but Arizona has been alright at shutting down top WRs; Davante Adams had just twelve yards last week. I think both teams will continue to struggle a bit, squeaking out a low point total.
– Ben Wolbransky

Lions vs. Vikings UNDER 53.5

While my initial instinct is to target the over in any game the Lions are involved in, I lean toward the under this week. This is the highest total on the slate for good reason, as the Lions have been involved in 73- and 63-point totals the last two weeks. That said, I expect the Vikings to feature Dalvin Cook this week and keep this game under control, after only giving him 6 rushing attempts on Monday night against the Eagles. Minnesota is a six-point home favorite and returns home after holding the Packers to one TD in Week 1.
–Dylan Santora

Falcons vs. Seahawks OVER 42

Porous would be a compliment for Atlanta’s defense, which has surrendered 2.64 points per possession through the first two weeks, good for the second-worst mark in the NFL. Their offense has been a surprising bright spot, however, featuring a dynamic rushing attack that has put up at least 26 points in each of their matchups. Seattle’s defense ranks 24th in passing yards allowed, 25th in rushing yards allowed, and 25th in points allowed per possession (which would be even worse if Denver didn’t lose 2 fumbles at the goal line in Week 1). I expect both of these shaky defenses to be exploited by the opposing offense, ultimately driving this game over the point total of 42.
-Austin MacMillan

Packers at Buccaneers UNDER 41.5

These teams feature two future Hall of Famers at quarterback, but their offenses couldn’t be any less impressive to start the year. The Buccaneers rank just 24th in yards per game through the first two weeks, and they’re going to be incredibly short-handed vs. the Packers. Mike Evans is suspended, while Chris Godwin and Julio Jones aren’t locks to suit up. Add all the injuries to their offensive line, and the Buccaneers offense has to be significantly downgraded. Meanwhile, the Packers rank just 23rd in yards per game, and they looked dismal in Week 1 against the Vikings. They were able to bounce back slightly last week, but it was against a suspect Bears defense. The Buccaneers still possess one of the best defenses in the league, so they should find things much tougher in Week 3. Overall, I’m expecting points to be at a premium.
–Matt LaMarca

Be sure to follow the updated consensus NFL lines for Week 3 to monitor how these lines move ahead of kickoff.

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