Week 3 NFL Lines and Picks

Sep 24, 2022 - 5:00 PM

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Welp, Week 2 was a swift kick in the shorts. In fact, it was hard to do much worse. 1-5 for the week, which makes for a 4-8 season mark. The win was the Dolphins, so I guess yay for that. Time to start doing much, much better. And yeah, some of you last week suggested some teasers, so I’m going to oblige you this week (standard 6-point shift; a push in either is a loss).

On with Week 3 picks...

Overall season mark (4-8)

Miami Dolphins picks (2-0 on season)

Buffalo at MIAMI (+4.5)

Buffalo is currently a who’s who list of injured players, and with Micah Hyde, Jordan Phillips, Ed Oliver, Dane Jackson, and Jordan Poyer out, this defense suddenly looks much, much different. Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs are on a tear to start this year, and I don’t see how the Dolphins can contain them to keep this game in the low 20s. But with Miami’s offense playing with a sky-high level of confidence right now, they might not have to. Tua has a big game for the second straight week, as Miami proves its passing game is second to none in the NFL right now. I’ll take home field advantage with four points and a hook here in a high-scoring affair.

Rest of the league (2-8 on the season)

KANSAS CITY (-5.5) at Indianapolis

I don’t know what’s going on with the Colts this year, but it ain’t good. The Chiefs are playing on another level to start the year and will get up early on the road, forcing Matt Ryan to have to throw to keep up. A recipe for another Colts disaster.

Las Vegas at TENNESSEE (+2)

I feel like this line is skewed a bit based on the Titans blowout loss at Buffalo last week. The Titans got out of their game plan and couldn’t keep up. Derrick Henry will get going here and keep the game script in their favor. I think the Titans win here at home, so I’ll gladly take extra points.

Jacksonville at LA Chargers; OVER 42.5

This is dicey, since it appears Chase Daniel will be starting in Justin Herbert’s place, but that’s still a pretty low bar to get over for two teams with plenty of weapons. These two find a way to get over in what should be a very close, competitive game.

Green Bay at TAMPA BAY (-1)

In the Bay of Pigs battle, I’ll go with the team with the better defense and home field advantage. It is tough to say what either team’s receiving corps will look like on Sunday, as both have a laundry list of players that are banged up, but the Bucs’ run defense is an absolute brick wall and will shut down the Packers running game much better.

Teaser: PHILADELPHIA (at Washington) and CINCINNATI (at NY Jets) picks

Both lines are -6, so teasing both to picks. I was hesitant to believe it, but it does look like the Eagles are for real this year in the NFC East, and they should find a way to win at Washington this week. Cincy was...well, pretty sad last week at Dallas, but I’m counting on them using that as a wakeup call. With Tee Higgins back, they should bounce back this week. The Jets beat them in Jersey last year, so the Bengals won’t be taking this game lightly at all.