NFL Week 4 Player Prop Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday Night Football (2022)

Sep 29, 2022 - 10:32 AM

The Miami Dolphins are entering “The Jungle” for a head-to-head matchup with the Cincinnati Bengals in a much-anticipated AFC clash for “Thursday Night Football.” Miami looks to remain undefeated while the Bengals hope to right the ship.

Here are my favorite prop bets for Thursday night’s game.

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NFL Week 4 Player Prop Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday Night Football (2022)

Tee Higgins Over 63.5 Receiving Yards (-110 via BetMGM)

Tee Higgins has been greatly overshadowed by Ja’Marr Chase’s presence in the media’s eyes, but his talent should not go unnoticed. In 2021, Higgins averaged a whopping 77.9 receiving yards per game, which is a comfortable 14.4 more than Vegas’ projections.

Additionally, Higgins is averaging 63.7 receiving yards per game this season, despite an underwhelming start from Joe Burrow and the Bengals. Furthermore, Higgins only played 26% of snaps in Week 1, skewing his 2022 average (82 ypg in Weeks 2 & 3). On top of this, the talent and opportunity disparity between Chase and Higgins is not as far as you may think.

According to Jacob Gibbs, Chase and Higgins have run 562 simultaneous routes. On those routes, Chase was targeted 112 times, and shockingly Higgins received 127 targets along with 170 more air yards. Higgins has also exceeded 63.5 receiving yards in 10 of his last 15 (66.7%) games. I’ll be taking the over on Higgins’ receiving yards prop.

Ja’Marr Chase Under 24.5 Longest Reception (-115 via DraftKings Sportsbook)

Chase exploded onto the scene in the NFL, surpassing 24.5 yards on a single reception in each of his first seven games. However, since then, Chase has eclipsed this mark in just four of his last 16 (25%) games. Additionally, the Miami Dolphins ranked 12th in adjusted passing yards per pass attempt with 6.7 in 2021. Furthermore, the Dolphins were 11th in the NFL in average explosive pass rate with 7% from Week 10-on last season. Xavien Howard should do a good-enough job immobilizing the young star wide receiver on Thursday night. I will be backing the under on Chase’s longest reception.

Evan McPherson Over 1.5 Field Goals Made (-120 via DraftKings Sportsbook)

This final player prop is the weirdest and most unpredictable of the bunch. However, I feel there is value in this line. Through just three games this season, Evan McPherson has attempted exactly three field goals in each and successfully made two or more in every game.

“Money Mac” impressed fans during his rookie campaign with many clutch field goals during the Bengals’ playoff run. McPherson was also extremely successful during the regular season, hitting at an 84.8% clip and 100% from inside the 40-yard-line. During the 2021 season, McPherson hit two or more field goals in 13 of 20 (65%) games, including the postseason. Additionally, the Bengals’ red zone offense has struggled to start the 2022 season, ranking 21st and scoring a touchdown only 50% of the time. However, this is good for McPherson as it provides ample field goal opportunities. I will be taking the coin flip in this one and betting McPherson over 1.5 field goals made.

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