AFC West: Week 4 Best Bets

Sep 30, 2022 - 1:11 PM

In Week 4, the Kansas City Chiefs play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday Night Football. How should you bet on the game?

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Chiefs game lines

The Chiefs absolutely blew the game last Sunday. But that doesn’t mean the season is lost. For the last several years, it’s been a struggle for head coach Andy Reid to figure out the Colts, so it’s not too surprising that Kansas City left town with a loss.

With the team’s offensive line as rough as it is right now, I could see the Buccaneers getting the win. However, I’m not prepared to say that for certain. What I am prepared to say is that I have faith in Reid. I believe the Chiefs will win (and, by extension, cover).

The spread is tight for two reasons: Kansas City’s loss and Tampa Bay’s defense. While the Buccaneers are 2-1, their games have been close (aside the Dallas Cowboys game). So against the Chiefs, I can understand a tight spread. I just don’t like it.

The game total also makes sense. Tampa Bay has held their game totals to no more than 30 all season. So, a low(ish) total makes sense.

The moneyline is also tight because this should be a close game. Unless many things go wrong, I can’t imagine this being a blowout.

So here’s how I would bet on this game: take the Chiefs’ moneyline and Under 46. It’s as simple as that.

Las Vegas Raiders-Denver Broncos game lines

There is something that I want to happen in this game: the Raiders need to beat the Broncos — because if they don’t (and the Chiefs lose), Denver ends up in first place in the AFC West. Like that thought? No? Neither do I. But I think this game will be a lot less balanced than Vegas says. Davante Adams is fed up. The Raiders will end up pulling away with the win. But I’m still not comfortable taking the Over. Raiders by more than 2.5, Under 45.5.

Los Angeles Chargers-Houston Texans game lines

The Chargers’ Joey Bosa, Jalen Guyton and Rashawn Slater are on injured reserve — and Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen and J.C. Jackson are still injured. The Chargers are in shambles. Yet I think they’ll still manage to come out with a win — because the Texans are horrible. I love Davis Mills and Brandin Cooks, but they can’t seem to get on the same page. Chargers moneyline, Texans cover, Under 44.

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In Week 3, a lot of things didn’t go as I had anticipated. So in Week 4, I am much more cautious; I’m not nearly as comfortable with the matchups as I was a week ago. The Chiefs still have possession of first place in the AFC West — but with a Chiefs loss and Broncos victory, that could all change.

As always... bet responsibly.