NFL Week 4 Same Game Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions (2022)

Sep 30, 2022 - 6:24 PM

Each week, I’ll be providing my favorite Sunday parlay, along with my favorite same-game parlay options for each game. Without further ado, here are this week’s parlay picks.

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Week 4 parlay 

• Over 47 points in Cleveland-Atlanta
• Arizona Cardinals +102
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers -105
• Odds: +660

This is admittedly not my favorite NFL betting card of the season. But these are the three plays I feel the most confident in on the board. The Falcons defense is yielding six yards per play and have given up the 7th-most points in the league through three games. Cleveland’s run game should be in store for a big day against a Falcons defense allowing 4.8 yards per attempt. However, the Browns could be without several key defensive starters Sunday, most notably Myles Garrett. The Falcons offense has been a respectable unit thus far and should get on the board against a Browns defense that isn’t at full strength.

Backing Kliff Kingsbury is a scary proposition. However, the Cardinals have more talent offensively and a blitz-heavy defense that should rattle Baker Mayfield, who has been arguably the worst quarterback in the NFL this season. And believe it or not, the Cards are 14-4-1 ATS as a road underdog under Kingsbury. With such a short number, I’ll take the Cardinals.

And speaking of trends, how about Tom Brady after a loss. Brady is 43-16 against the spread following a straight up loss and 7-2 in Tampa in that exact situation. The Chiefs offense just doesn’t feel the same without Tyreek Hill. With no true deep threat, I’d expect the Buccaneers defense to attack Patrick Mahomes and force him into a dink and dunk thrower. The Buccaneers offense is still in a rough place, but Mike Evans returning at least will help. I’ll back the Bucs at home to get it done.

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Minnesota Vikings -3 at New Orleans Saints (in London) Total 43.5 

• Leg 1: Under 43.5
• Leg 2: Chris Olave over 38.5 receiving yards
• Leg 3: Alexander Mattison over 17.5 rushing yards
• Odds: +540

This has the makings of an ugly game in London. Andy Dalton will start for the Saints with Jameis Winston injured. The Saints will also be without Michael Thomas, which could open the door to a breakout game from Olave. For Minnesota, Dalvin Cook is expected to play, but I’d expect this to be more of a timeshare to limit Cook’s opportunities to worsen the injury. This won’t be the prettiest game to wake up to Sunday morning.

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Buffalo Bills -3 at Baltimore Ravens, Total 51 

• Leg 1: Ravens +3
• Leg 2: Josh Allen under 38 pass attempts
• Leg 3: Lamar Jackson under 31.5 pass attempts
• Odds: +571

I know, betting against these two marquee quarterbacks isn’t fun. But I have a reason. The weather in Baltimore on Sunday does not look to be… conducive for passing. With lingering conditions from Tropical Storm Ian affecting the area, the forecast is calling for rain and most importantly sustained winds at 17 MPH with gusts up to 43 MPH. The weather could force this game to become a ground game, which gives Baltimore a sizable advantage. The Ravens are more built for games like this than Buffalo. I’m still not convinced Buffalo can win a game on the ground, so give me the Ravens at anything above a field goal.

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Cleveland Browns -1 at Atlanta Falcons, Total 47

• Leg 1: Over 47
• Leg 2: Nick Chubb over 89.5 rushing yards
• Leg 3: Marcus Mariota over 218.5 passing yards
• Odds: +561

Like I mentioned above, I’m expecting points in this matchup. Atlanta’s defense has struggled all year, while Cleveland will enter this game with some significant injuries defensively. Nick Chubb should be in store for a massive day against a generous Falcons front seven. The key will be Mariota, who I’m banking on a big performance from. The Falcons could be trailing most of this game, which will result in Mariota tossing it to Drake London and Kyle Pitts more often.

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Chicago Bears at New York Giants -3, Total 39.5 

• Leg 1: Under 39.5 points
• Leg 2: Justin Fields under 149 passing yards
• Leg 3: Saquon Barkley over 80.5 rushing yards
• Odds: +578

Have you seen both of these offenses? Points will be at a premium in a battle between Daniel Jones and Justin Fields. I would’ve added a Bears running back prop, but they aren’t on the board as we await news on David Montgomery’s status. Instead, I’ll continue to fade Justin Fields, who clearly hasn’t earned the trust of his coaching staff and will face a Wink Martindale defense that will blitz him aggressively. Lastly, Barkey should find plenty of success on the ground against a Bears defense allowing 4.8 yards per carry. He rushed for 81 against a fierce Cowboys defense, I think he’ll hit that mark again.

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles -6.5, Total 45.5

• Leg 1: Christian Kirk over 60 receiving yards
• Leg 2: Jalen Hurts over 49.5 rushing yards
• Odds: +242

This is admittedly a game I don’t have a great feel for. However, I like Kirk’s matchup against a Philadelphia secondary that primarily plays zone coverage. Kirk earned his contract from Jacksonville because of his ability to find soft pockets in zones, and I expect him to have another good day. With gusty winds expected in Philly thanks to Hurricane Ian, I’d expect this to be more of a rushing day for Hurts. If I had to take a side, I’d probably take the points with the Jags. But I don’t love it.

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Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions -4, Total 48 

• Leg 1: Over 48
• Leg 2: Jared Goff over 260.5 passing yards
• Leg 3: Tyler Lockett over 62.5 receiving yards
• Odds: +529

Both of these defenses are surrendering over 5 yards per play, and I expect both teams to successfully drive the field throughout the afternoon. Seattle’s secondary is one of the weakest in the league, which means Goff could thrive in a game where he won’t have D’Andre Swift in the backfield. As for Lockett, I feel more comfortable taking his over yardage prop, as D.K. Metcalf could be shadowed by cornerback Jeff Okudah throughout the day. Okudah is really good, but the rest of Detroit’s secondary isn’t.

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Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts -3.5, Total 43 

• Leg 1: Jonathan Taylor over 94.5 rushing yards
• Leg 2: Indianapolis Colts -3.5
• Odds: +259

This could be the big Taylor game we’ve been waiting for. The Titans are allowing a whopping 5.8 yards per attempt this season. Frank Reich has done a poor job this season, but even he knows he should feed his stud tailback in this matchup. I don’t love much else in this game. However, I do think the Titans are getting too much credit for beating a Raiders team that couldn’t get out of its own way last week. Tennessee is still only two weeks removed from embarrassing itself at Buffalo. And while I’ve heard plenty of positive sentiment for the Titans, this line only continues to go up. I’ll lay it with the Colts.

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New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5, Total 41.5 

• Leg 1: Under 41.5 points
• Leg 2: Najee Harris under 67.5 rushing yards
• Leg 3: Michael Carter over 1.5 receptions
• Odds: +471

This is another matchup between two lousy offenses and quarterbacks. Mitch Trubisky flat out stinks, while Zach Wilson has a lot of proving to do. I expect this game to go under. Speaking of unders, Harris has failed to eclipse this yardage total in each of his first three games. Now he’ll go up against a Jets defense yielding just 3.7 yards per carry. Carter had 12 receptions in his first two games before catching just one last week. This feels like a good buy low spot, as Wilson could be scrambling and checking down for his life considering the offensive line he has in front of him.

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Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys -3, Total 41.5 

• Leg 1: Commanders +3
• Leg 2: Carson Wentz to throw an interception -178
• Odds: +198

Another game I don’t have a great feel for. However, the Cowboys are coming off an emotional divisional win and enter this game on a short week. Eventually, I think Cooper Rush’s run will come to an end. Granted, that means Carson Wentz needs to not ruin the game against an aggressive Cowboys defense, which is why I’m so hesitant about taking a side in this one. So why don’t we get the best of both worlds and parlay a Commanders cover with a likely Wentz mistake. Let’s just hope Wentz limits it to one INT.

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Los Angeles Chargers -5 at Houston Texans, Total 45

• Leg 1: Under 45
• Leg 2: Austin Ekeler over 54.5 rushing yards
• Odds: +246

This is another game where the value is pretty much gone in terms of the number. If you got Houston +7, congratulations. There’s also a ton of uncertainty on Los Angeles, given their injury concerns, so the prop menu was limited. I suspect the Chargers will look to just get out of Houston with a win and good health. To do so, I think they’ll rely more heavily on Austin Ekeler against a Texans run defense yielding 5.6 yards per attempt. The Chargers won’t have stud Joey Bosa, but they have enough talent to hold a pedestrian Texans offense at bay. Houston’s defensive identity is to prevent big plays, so any points scored by the Chargers will come off long drives.

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Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers -1, Total 43.5 

• Leg 1: Cardinals +102
• Leg 2: Baker Mayfield to throw an interception +102
• Odds: +308

This game has a bit of uncertainty as we await the news on Christian McCaffrey’s status. However, the Cardinals are the play whether McCaffrey goes or not. Arizona blitzes at one of the highest rates in the league, and should force Mayfield into at least one mistake. Mayfield has simply been awful in Carolina and I don’t take much out of Carolina’s victory over the Saints last week.

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New England Patriots at Green Bay Packers -9.5, Total 40 

• Leg 1: Patriots +9.5
• Leg 2: Rhamondre Stevenson over 9.5 rush attempts
• Odds: +227

This is another really ugly game that I don’t want much part of. I would prefer the Patriots at double digits, but backing Brian Hoyer on the road is only for the brave. With Mac Jones most likely out, I think New England will emphasize the ground game, which means both Damien Harris and Stevenson could see a ton of work. I’m taking Stevenson because his prop was lower.

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Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders -2.5, Total 45.5

• Leg 1: Raiders -2.5
• Leg 2: Josh Jacobs under 2.5 receptions
• Leg 3: Russell Wilson over 239.5 passing yards
• Odds: +507

This is an all-in spot for the Raiders, who could arguably be 3-0 instead of 0-3. I’d expect a sharp game plan from Josh McDaniels, who will have a rare coaching advantage over Nathaniel Hackett. Denver’s offense still has to prove it to me before I’m backing them. As for Jacobs, his five-catch performance last week has this number a bit inflated. I do think the Broncos will get their passing game going against a Raiders defense allowing 7.2 yards per pass attempt.

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Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1, Total 45.5 

• Leg 1: Buccaneers -105
• Leg 2: Clyde Edwards-Helaire under 36.5 rushing yards
• Leg 3: Tom Brady under 275.5 passing yards
• Leg 4: Patrick Mahomes under 271.5 passing yards
• Odds: +1148

If you couldn’t tell, I think defense will be the storyline in this Sunday night matchup. The best unit in this game might actually be Tampa’s defense. And with no Tyreek Hill to worry about, I expect Todd Bowles to be even more aggressive in shutting down the middle of the field and attacking Patrick Mahomes with exotic blitzes. Mahomes actually hasn’t cleared this prop since Week 1, and this is the toughest defense he’ll face so far. As for Brady, I’m still worried about this Bucs offense even with Mike Evans returning. The offensive line is still a concern, and I think the Buccaneers will be more balanced. All that being said, I am trusting the Bucs defense to score a big win in a Super Bowl rematch.

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