NFL Week 4 Sunday Night Football Same Game Parlay (Chiefs vs. Buccaneers)

Oct 2, 2022 - 10:37 AM

This year, Sunday Night Football games have been a bit hit-or-miss. We’ve seen some unfortunate injuries and some spotty QB play. In Week 4, however, we’ll be treated to one of the better QB matchups of the year. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs go into Tampa to play Tom Brady’s Buccaneers in a Super Bowl 55 rematch.

Both teams are looking to rebound from disappointing losses last week, with the Chiefs coming off a last-minute loss in Indianapolis and Tampa losing at home to the Packers. Below, I’ll break down a +850 parlay that I think has excellent value for Sunday night’s game.

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Alternate Spread: Chiefs +4.5

Let’s start by taking a side in this game. Both these teams have been a bit hard to figure out early in the season, but I am surprised to see the Chiefs getting points in this matchup. Tampa has been quite unimpressive in three games this year, without a true dominating win despite playing inferior talent in at least two of their three games. 

The Bucs’ defense has been great this season, but the offense has struggled. Tampa’s biggest offensive output was 20 points against the Saints – a team that has allowed 22 points to Baker Mayfield’s Panthers and 26 points to Marcus Mariota’s Falcons. 

The Chiefs’ defense, meanwhile, has been solid on the season. They allowed some meaningless points late in their games against the Cardinals and the Chargers, but overall have been able to contain their opponents’ offenses and stake an early lead in all of the games they played. Even in losing the Colts, they held Matt Ryan to 222 passing yards and Jonathan Taylor to just 3.5 yards/carry.

I expect the Chiefs’ defense to show up on Sunday and the Chiefs’ offense to play well, as always. I’ll take the alternate spread of +4.5 to keep a 3 or 4-point margin of defeat within our range of favorable outcomes, but it’s hard for me to see the Bucs winning this one in a landslide.

Buccaneers First Half Team Total Under 14.5 

As I mentioned in the last section, Tampa Bay’s offense has struggled this season. This has been especially true in the first half of games. 

The Bucs posted 12 first-half points in Week 1 against Dallas, zero in Week 2 against New Orleans, and 3 in Week 3 against the Packers. The Chiefs, on the other hand, have held every team they’ve played this year to ten or fewer first-half points.

I anticipate that Tampa will play a slow and methodical offense to start the game – even if they’re able to string together effective drives on Sunday, 15 or more points is a lot to ask in the first half for a team that’s struggled to score this year.

Leonard Fournette 45+ Receiving Yards

The Chiefs have played good defense this year, but they have one weakness – defending RBs in the passing game. Kansas City has allowed 9.3 catches (most in the NFL) for 56.7 yards (3rd most in the NFL) to RBs on average through 3 games this season. They’ve been solid against WRs, and the Bucs will likely be working with a depleted WR group Sunday night with Chris Godwin, Julio Jones, Russell Gage, and Breshad Perriman all showing up on the injury report.

Leonard Fournette is off to a bit of a slow start in the passing game this season, with nine catches on 12 targets for 54 yards total. I think that will change this week. Fournette averaged six targets per game last season, and the health of the Bucs’ WR group will necessitate his involvement on Sunday night.

Fournette has the talent and big play ability to pick up big chunks of yardage in the passing game, and I expect him to have his highest target share of the season on Sunday against a team that has trouble defending RBs in the passing game. This is a bit of an aggressive line to take, but I think the value is strong with this play.

Travis Kelce 55+ Receiving Yards

While the Bucs have also played good defense in 2022, their biggest weakness is matching up against TEs. Tampa Bay has allowed an average line of 5.4 catches for 46.3 yards to the opposition’s leading TEs so far this year. This group has included Robert Tonyan, Dalton Schultz, and Juwan Johnson – all good players, but none of them are Travis Kelce.

Predictably, Kelce is already having a monster season this year. Through three games, Kelce hauled in 17 catches on 24 targets for 230 yards and two TDs. Kelce has received 28% of the Chiefs’ targets and doesn’t have a game with fewer than 7 targets this season.

If Kelce can keep his target share consistent on Sunday night against a team that’s struggled to defend much less talented TEs, he’ll very likely go over 55 yards.

Parlay

• Leg 1: Chiefs +4.5
• Leg 2: Buccaneers 1st half Team Total U14.5
• Leg 3: Leonard Fournette 45+ Rec Yds
• Leg 4: Travis Kelce 55+ Rec Yds

Parlay Odds: +850 on BetMGM

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