NFL Week 5 Projected Spreads, Predictions & Best Bets: 49ers vs. Panthers (2022)
Oct 6, 2022 - 2:42 PMBelow you’ll find my projected spreads for each game along with one of my best bets of the week: 49ers vs. Panthers. You can find all of my best bets of the week here.
Also check out our BettingPros matchups page, where you can see the percentage distributions of spread, over/under and moneyline bets tracked in the BettingPros App.
Freedman’s Week 5 Projections Against the Spread & Best Bets
Here are my personal spread projections for each Week 5 game, ordered according to when each game kicks off. The consensus lines are pulled from our BettingPros odds page on Wednesday and are presented — along with my projected lines and edges — from the perspective of the home team. (For the London game, the Packers are technically the home team.)
Note: I update my personal projections as well as our premium BettingPros spread projections throughout the week. These projections and odds are as of Wed., Oct. 5, 8:30 pm ET.
| Home Team | Road Team | Consensus Line | Freedman Line | Projected Edge |
| DEN | IND | -3.5 | -3.5 | 0 |
| GB | NYG | -8 | -7.75 | 0.25 |
| BUF | PIT | -14 | -13.75 | 0.25 |
| CLE | LAC | 2.5 | 2.25 | -0.25 |
| MIN | CHI | -7 | -7.75 | -0.75 |
| WAS | TEN | 2.5 | 0.25 | -2.25 |
| JAX | HOU | -7 | -6.25 | 0.75 |
| NO | SEA | -5.5 | -4.5 | 1 |
| TB | ATL | -9 | -9.5 | -0.5 |
| NYJ | MIA | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| NE | DET | -3 | -1 | 2 |
| CAR | SF | 6.5 | 4.5 | -2 |
| ARI | PHI | 5.5 | 2.75 | -2.75 |
| LAR | DAL | -5.5 | -6 | -0.5 |
| BAL | CIN | -3 | -2.25 | 0.75 |
| KC | LV | -7 | -9 | -2 |
San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers
Check out our 49ers at Panthers matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 9, 2022, 4:05 pm ET
- Location: Bank of America Stadium
- TV: CBS
49ers at Panthers: Consensus Lines
- Spread: 49ers -6.5
- Over/Under: 39
- Moneyline: 49ers -275, Panthers +235
49ers at Panthers: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Oct. 5.
- Spread: 49ers – 75% bets, 76% money
- Over/Under: Under – 50% bets, 71% money
- Moneyline: Panthers – 18% bets, 38% money
49ers at Panthers: Injuries
49ers: Week 5 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Trent Williams | OT | Ankle | DNP |
| Colton McKivitz | OT | Knee | DNP |
| Tyrion Davis-Price | RB | Ankle | DNP |
| Tyler Kroft | TE | Knee | DNP |
| Arik Armstead | DT | Foot, Ankle | DNP |
| Javon Kinlaw | DT | Knee | DNP |
| Tarvarius Moore | DB | Hamstring | DNP |
| Nick Bosa | DE | Rest | DNP |
| Ross Dwelley | TE | Rib | LP |
| Jauan Jennings | WR | Ankle | LP |
49ers: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Azeez Al-Shaair | LB | IR |
| Maurice Hurst | DL | IR |
| Trey Lance | QB | IR |
| Jordan Matthews | TE | IR |
| Elijah Mitchell | RB | IR |
| Curtis Robinson | LB | IR |
| Jimmie Ward | DB | IR |
| Jordan Willis | DL | IR |
| Kalia Davis | DL | NFI |
| Jason Verrett | CB | PUP |
Panthers: Week 5 Injury Report
| Player | Position | Injury | Wed |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB | Rest | DNP |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | WR | Hamstring | DNP |
| Stantley Thomas-Oliver | CB | Thigh | DNP |
| Xavier Woods | S | Hamstring | DNP |
| Marquis Haynes | DE | Knee | LP |
| Frankie Luvu | OLB | Shoulder | LP |
| Shaq Thompson | OLB | Knee | LP |
| Stephen Sullivan | TE | Back | FP |
Panthers: IR, PUP & Out
| Player | Pos | Status |
| Jeremy Chinn | S | IR |
| Matt Corral | QB | IR |
| Sam Darnold | QB | IR |
| Zane Gonzalez | K | IR |
| Andre Roberts | WR | IR |
| Bravvion Roy | DT | IR |
| Julian Stanford | LB | IR |
49ers at Panthers: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
49ers Trends
- HC Kyle Shanahan: 16-26-1 ATS (18.8% ROI for faders) as favorite
- HC Kyle Shanahan: 19-24 ML (25.8% ROI for faders) as favorite
Panthers Trends
- QB Baker Mayfield: 8-4 ATS (29.4% ROI) as underdog off loss
- Underdogs: 33-24-2 ATS (12.4% ROI) when playing third consecutive home game
49ers at Panthers: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
49ers Offense vs. Panthers Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.041 | 20 | -0.05 | 10 | -10 |
| Total SR | 39.8% | 27 | 41.4% | 7 | -20 |
| Total DVOA | -7.4% | 21 | -0.9% | 12 | -9 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.006 | 18 | 0.022 | 12 | -6 |
| Dropback SR | 41.4% | 25 | 42.4% | 9 | -16 |
| Pass DVOA | 12.0% | 16 | 10.0% | 19 | 3 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 6.3% | 15 | 3.9% | 31 | 16 |
| Rush EPA | -0.090 | 20 | -0.154 | 9 | -11 |
| Rush SR | 38.2% | 24 | 39.8% | 15 | -9 |
| Rush DVOA | -16.6% | 24 | -14.1% | 10 | -14 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.09 | 21 | 4.46 | 16 | -5 |
| Yards per Play | 5.5 | 14 | 5 | 8 | -6 |
| Points per Game | 17.8 | 27 | 21.3 | 13 | -14 |
Panthers Offense vs. 49ers Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | -0.147 | 32 | -0.177 | 1 | -31 |
| Total SR | 37.6% | 31 | 37.1% | 1 | -30 |
| Total DVOA | -22.7% | 31 | -29.5% | 1 | -30 |
| Dropback EPA | -0.188 | 32 | -0.184 | 3 | -29 |
| Dropback SR | 33.8% | 32 | 39.6% | 2 | -30 |
| Pass DVOA | -31.3% | 31 | -26.7% | 4 | -27 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 9.3% | 28 | 10.0% | 3 | -25 |
| Rush EPA | -0.073 | 18 | -0.165 | 8 | -10 |
| Rush SR | 44.3% | 11 | 32.6% | 2 | -9 |
| Rush DVOA | -4.4% | 16 | -33.3% | 1 | -15 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.73 | 8 | 3.32 | 1 | -7 |
| Yards per Play | 4.9 | 27 | 3.8 | 1 | -26 |
| Points per Game | 19.5 | 17 | 11.5 | 1 | -16 |
49ers at Panthers: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 64 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Jimmy Garoppolo
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | 0.07 | 18 |
| AY/A | 8 | 6 |
| QBR | 33.2 | 27 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -0.5 | 21 |
Career: Jimmy Garoppolo
- AY/A: 8.1
- QB Elo per Game: -7.6
2022: Baker Mayfield
| Metric | Output | Rank |
| EPA + CPOE | -0.048 | 32 |
| AY/A | 5.9 | 24 |
| QBR | 15.3 | 32 |
| ATS Value vs. Avg. | -2.8 | 35 |
Career: Baker Mayfield
- AY/A: 6.9
- QB Elo per Game: -40.3
Key Matchup: Panthers Rush Defense vs. 49ers Rush Offense
The Panthers are an easy team to overlook because of the collective incompetence of HC Matt Rhule, OC Ben McAdoo and QB Baker Mayfield, but they’re actually good on defense.
They’re top-12 against both the pass and the run.
- Pass EPA: 0.022 (No. 12)
- Rush EPA: -0.154 (No. 9)
Their run defense especially should help them keep this contest close, as the 49ers offense is No. 6 in rush rate (51.7%) and heavily predicated on the run game, which they haven’t been able to do well, ranking no better than No. 20 in any rushing efficiency metric.
- Rush EPA: -0.090 (No. 20)
- Rush SR: 38.2% (No. 24)
- Rush DVOA: -16.6% (No. 24)
- Adj. Line Yards: 4.09 (No. 21)
The 49ers running game should be especially hampered by their injuries. Not only are they without No. 1 RB Elijah Mitchell (knee, IR), backup RB Tyrion Davis-Price (ankle) and running QB Trey Lance (leg), but they are also highly likely to be without starting LT Trent Williams (ankle) and backup LT Colton McKivitz (knee).
This number was Panthers +3 in the lookahead market just a week ago. Not enough has changed from then to now to justify the line movement we’ve seen.
Best Line: Panthers +6.5 (-110, DraftKings)
First Recommended: Panthers +6.5 (-110)
Personal Projection: Panthers +4.5
Limit: Panthers +6
Note: I already have a position on this game of 49ers -3 (-110) via the lookahead line, but given my current projection and the range between 49ers -3 and Panthers +6.5, I think it’s worth adding to my original position in an attempt to middle.
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The post NFL Week 5 Projected Spreads, Predictions & Best Bets: 49ers vs. Panthers (2022) appeared first on BettingPros.
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