NFL Week 12 Leans for Every Game & Best Bets (2022)

Nov 25, 2022 - 10:25 PM

This season at BettingPros, we’re asking some of our experts to give leans and top picks for every game on the NFL slate. Here are all of their leans, picks, best bets and predictions for Week 12.

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Week 12 Spread Leans for Each Game

Home Team	Away Team	Home Spread	Fitzmaurice	Freedman	Santora	MacMillan	Wolbransky	Greer
CAR	DEN	2.5	CAR	DEN	CAR	CAR	CAR	CAR
MIA	HOU	-13	HOU	MIA	HOU	HOU	MIA	MIA
NYJ	CHI	-4.5	NYJ	NYJ	NYJ	NYJ	CHI	CHI
CLE	TB	3.5	CLE	TB	CLE	TB	CLE	CLE
JAX	BAL	4	BAL	JAX	BAL	JAX	JAX	JAX
WAS	ATL	-4.5	WAS	ATL	ATL	ATL	WAS	ATL
TEN	CIN	1.5	TEN	TEN	TEN	CIN	TEN	TEN
ARI	LAC	4.5	ARI	ATL	ARI	ARI	ARI	ARI
SEA	LV	-3.5	SEA	SEA	SEA	SEA	SEA	LV
KC	LAR	-14.5	KC	KC	LAR	LAR	KC	LAR
SF	NO	-9	SF	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO
PHI	GB	-7	GB	GB	PHI	GB	PHI	PHI
IND	PIT	-2.5	PIT	IND	IND	PIT	PIT	IND

TEN +2 vs. CIN
I have the Bengals rated two points higher (before adjusting for Week 12-specific injuries) — but the Titans have a few factors in their favor. First, they have three extra days of rest after playing last week on Thursday Night Football — and HC Mike Vrabel is 9-0 ATS with 10-plus days between games in the regular season. Additionally, Vrabel’s Titans have been strong as underdogs (22-12 ATS), and they’ve been especially strong as home dogs (9-4 ATS). Finally, the Titans have had an unreal home-field advantage of 7.02 points over the past 16 weeks (per NFElo). Now, I’m certainly not assigning them a home-field advantage that strong. Regression will strike eventually. But Nissan Stadium has not been an easy place to play for visitors since the Titans’ stretch run last year, and that shouldn’t be ignored. Put all of that together, and I have this game as close to a pick’em.
– Matthew Freedman

SEA -3.5 vs. LV
Seattle isn’t getting enough respect offensively or defensively. They have been playing complete games off football, touting the 9th-best point margin and 9th-most offensive EPA in the NFL. The 6-4 team going up against Las Vegas, a team that has struggled to stay competitive, touting an average points margin. In Las Vegas’s seven losses, they’ve lost by an average of a touchdown and only covered +3.5 in a loss twice.
– Ben Wolbransky

ATL +4.5 @ WAS
I think that we have reached the pinnacle of the betting market for this Commanders team that has won 5 of their last 6, going 5-0-1 ATS in those games. Though they deserve credit for winning those games, only their matchup against the Eagles came against a top-10 offense during that span. Meanwhile, the Falcons have lost by more than 4 points only 3 times on the season, and are 7-4 ATS overall. I believe that the loss of Kyle Pitts is ballooning this spread a little bit for no reason, as the Falcons offense has failed to incorporate him into their offensive gameplan all year long. Add in the fact that Washington has one of the most negligible home-field advantages in the NFL, and I think that Atlanta and its dynamic rushing attack will be able to stay inside the number of this inflated spread.
– Austin MacMillan

Prop Bet Analyzer: View top-rated props and historical prop performance by player >>

Week 12 Total Leans for Each Game

Home Team	Away Team	Over/Under	Fitzmaurice	Freedman	Santora	MacMillan	Wolbransky
CAR	DEN	36	Over	Under	Over	Under	Over
MIA	HOU	46	Under	Over	Under	Under	Under
NYJ	CHI	39.5	Over	Over	Over	Over	Over
CLE	TB	43	Over	Under	Over	Over	Under
JAX	BAL	44	Over	Over	Under	Under	Over
WAS	ATL	42	Over	Over	Over	Over	Over
TEN	CIN	42.5	Under	Over	Over	Under	Over
ARI	LAC	47.5	Over	Over	Over	Over	Under
SEA	LV	47.5	Under	Over	Under	Over	Over
KC	LAR	44	Over	Over	Over	Over	Over
SF	NO	43	Over	Over	Over	Over	Over
PHI	GB	46.5	Under	Over	Over	Under	Under
IND	PIT	39.5	Over	Under	Over	Over	Under

CHI @ NYJ Over 39.5
Over the last five Bears’ games, the average total points scored is 60.8. This is due to a combination of a terrible Bears’ defense and the breakout of Justin Fields. Assuming Fields plays this week after suffering a shoulder injury in Atlanta, any Bears game is live for the over. Even with Mike White starting for the Jets, the Bears defense does not provide much of a test. The Jets’ defense, which is only allowing 18.6 ppg this season (9th in the NFL), and the uncertainty around Fields’ health has this total low, but 40 points should be possible in this matchup.
– Dylan Santora

LA @ KC Over 42
The Chiefs offense is firing on all cylinders. Kansas City could put up 5 touchdowns in this affair, and I don’t think many football fans would bat an eye. After all, Patrick Mahomes has totaled 300+ passing yards in three straight games, and rusher Isiah Pacheco just had the team’s first 100-yard rushing game all season. Kansas City also leads the NFL not just in Offensive EPA, but also points per game (30), and total points per game (53). The Rams don’t have much going for them, but they haven’t all season. Still, they’ve been able to muster up 17 points per game, while allowing 23 (the league’s 16th most). No matter how you frame it, 42 points are just too low for any game with Patrick Mahomes.
– Ben Wolbransky

DEN @ CAR Under 36
A total this low in a professional football game is absolutely disgusting, but it’s a true reflection of just how incompetent these two offenses are. The Broncos have put up more than 16 points only twice this season, good for dead last in the NFL in terms of scoring. The Carolina offense has proven to be only slightly more competent, ranking 27th in the league in points per possession and will be handing the ball to Sam Darnold for his first start under center in 2022. The Broncos defense has continued to keep them in games in spite of their horrible offense, ranking in the top 2 in points and yards allowed per drive. These teams have combined to go 16-5 to the under this year, and even with a total this low, I don’t see how enough points are scored to make this game go over.
– Austin MacMillan

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