NFL Week 12 Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Fitz’s Favorites (2022)

Nov 25, 2022 - 10:24 PM

Here are my top player prop bets for Week 12 NFL action.

All odds are courtesy of DraftKings, as of Thursday night.

NFL Week 12 Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions

Russell Wilson OVER 217.5 passing yards

No, this has not been a banner season for Wilson, but he’s still averaging 247.4 passing yards per game. Wilson has cleared this number in each of his last three starts, in five of his last six, and in 7-of-9 games this season. He’s beaten this number in 4-of-5 road games this year, and on Sunday the Broncos will be visiting the Panthers, whose defense ranks 21st in DVOA against the pass. Carolina is giving up 232.3 passing yards per game. It seems unlikely that Denver will have a run-heavy offensive gameplan after releasing RB Melvin Gordon earlier this week. With Chase Edmonds and Mike Boone still on injured reserve, the Broncos’ only healthy running backs are Latavius Murray and the recently signed Marlon Mack.

Sam Darnold UNDER 183.5 passing yards

This number seems like a high bar for Darnold to clear in his first start of 2022, especially when he’ll be facing the ferocious Denver pass defense. The Broncos rank third in opponent passer rating and fourth in DVOA against the pass. They’re giving up 207.6 passing yards per game, and they’ve held the opposing QB under 200 passing yards in 5-of-10 games on the year. Darnold made 11 starts for the Panthers in 2021. He threw for at least 279 yards in each of his first four starts last season, but then the wheels came off, and he averaged 164.0 passing yards over his last seven starts. He threw for under 180 yards in five of those seven games. It’s hard to envision a rusty Darnold hitting the over against a pass defense as good as Denver’s.

Patrick Mahomes OVER passing 286.5 yards

Mahomes is only slightly less hot than the surface of the planet Mercury. He’s topped this number in six straight games, and he’s thrown for at least 329 yards in each of his last five. Mahomes’ yardage total is likely depressed due to the possibility of a Chiefs blowout of the Rams, who’ll be starting backup QB Bryce Perkins. As of Friday afternoon, Kansas City was a 15.5-point home favorite at most online sportsbooks. But the Chiefs get WR JuJu Smith-Schuster back from a concussion this weekend, and as good as Mahomes has been lately, he can clear this number even if he takes his foot off the gas pedal in the fourth quarter. The Rams’ once-vaunted pass defense has slipped — they rank 26th in DVOA against the pass and have the seventh-worst opponent passer rating.

Antonio Gibson UNDER 55.5 rushing yards

We hit the over on Gibson’s rushing total last week, but we’re going under this week. Why? Gibson has failed to clear this number in 8-of-11 games this season. In fact, he’s had 60 or more rushing yards only once this season – last week against the league-worst Houston run defense, when he rushed for 72 yards. Splitting work with Brian Robinson, Gibson is averaging 11 carries per game. He hasn’t been especially efficient as a runner this season, averaging just 3.7 yards per carry. He’ll face a Falcons run defense that’s giving up 97.5 rushing yards per game to opposing RBs.

Isiah Pacheco OVER 62.5 rushing yards

With Clyde Edwards-Helaire on injured reserve and Jerick McKinnon averaging 3.9 rushing attempts per game this season, Pacheco will be the engine that powers the Chiefs’ running game when they host the Rams on Sunday. And with Kansas City a 15.5-point home favorite, Pacheco figures to have a very run-friendly game script. The rookie from Rutgers ran 15 times for 107 yards last week against the Chargers, and in Week 10 he ran 16 times for 82 yards against the Jaguars. Expect another 15+ carries for Pacheco this week against the Rams, who can’t afford to overplay the run when they have to worry about Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes and the lethal K.C. passing game.

George Kittle UNDER 45.5 receiving yards

Since the arrival of RB Christian McCaffrey in San Francisco, the 49ers have really been spreading the ball around. Kittle’s target counts in the four games San Francisco has played with McCaffrey: 9, 5, 2, 6. Kittle had four catches for 84 yards against the Cardinals last week, but Arizona has given up more receiving yardage to tight ends this season than any other team. This week, Kittle faces a Saints defense that has been miserly vs. tight ends. New Orleans has yielded only 40 receptions and 362 yards to TEs in 11 games.

Mike Evans UNDER 4.5 receptions

Evans has notched five or more receptions in 6-of-9 games this season. So, why bet the under on 4.5 receptions? It’s largely weather-related. The Buccaneers are playing in Cleveland on Sunday, and the forecast calls for wet, windy weather. There’s a 100% chance of rain in Cleveland on Sunday, according to weather.com, and the winds are expected to blow 15-25 mph, with higher wind gusts possible. Evans’ average depth of target this season is 12.6 yards. He runs the sort of deeper routes that can be affected by wind conditions. This has the potential to be a low-volume day for Evans.

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