Week 12 Best bets

Nov 27, 2022 - 4:37 PM

Here are this week’s best bets -- odds via DraftKings Sportsbook -- as the 3-7 Jacksonville Jaguar (+3.5) host the 7-3 Baltimore Raven (-3.5).

Last week: 0-3

Season: 14-14

Christian Kirk under 60.5 receiving yards (-115)

Kirk has just three games with fewer than 60 receiving yards and ranks 15th among all NFL players on the season. He’s been a major beneficiary of Doug Pederson’s scheme, and that gives him a high floor every game, but this week’s matchup will limit his ceiling.

Marlon Humphrey is arguably the best slot corner in the league, and he’s one of nine players at his position with three-plus picks this year. From Kyle Barber of the Baltimore Beatdown:

Humphrey has been a shutdown cornerback this season. His play, combined with his versatility to play outside, inside is electric. He plays with a ferocity most lack in run defense and generates pressure when corner blitz is called.

While Humphrey isn't expected to shadow Kirk, Baltimore’s best coverage defender will line up against Jacksonville’s leading receiver often in the slot. The Ravens have also shored up on missed tackles and busted coverages since the beginning of the season, so Kirk may not come by explosive plays easily.

Travis Etienne longest rush over 16.5 yards (-105)

Etienne had at least one rush of 17-plus yards in five straight games until Week 10, when he managed a game-high rush of just 10 yards. Thanks to holding a double-digit lead throughout the game, Kansas City held the Jaguars to under 100 total rushing yards for just the third time this season.

The Ravens defense is playing like a playoff unit since acquiring Roquan Smith, but their offense isn't a threat to run away with a lead sans Rashod Bateman. Etienne should see enough volume in this game to break at least one loose.

Lamar Jackson over 53.5 rushing yards (-115)

The Jaguars have struggled to contain rushing quarterbacks this season. Daniel Jones rushed for 107 yards in Week 7 (becoming the first Giants signal-caller to do so since 1934) and Patrick Mahomes tip-toed for 39 yards in Jacksonville’s latest game.

Jones and Mahomes are great scramblers, but Lamar Jackson is one of the sport’s all-time greatest runners period. He’s on pace to break Michael Vick’s record for career rushing yards by a quarterback by the end of next season.

This year, Jackson ranks 15th among all players in rushing yards and tied for seventh in broken tackles. The Jaguars defense rank second-to-last in missed tackles. Jacksonville has also allowed the fourth-highest Expected Points Added per play and sixth-most yards per game on quarterback runs this season (excluding kneels) per Sports Info Solutions.

Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.