NFL Monday Night Football Same Game Parlay: Steelers vs. Colts (Week 12)

Nov 27, 2022 - 4:06 PM

On Monday night, the Colts and Steelers will square off in Indianapolis. On paper, this isn’t the most exciting matchup. Pittsburgh comes into the game at 3-7, while the Colts sit at 4-6-1. Indianapolis will hope to keep their slim playoff hopes alive, while the Steelers are starting to look ahead to next year’s draft class.

Even if neither of these teams is likely to take home a Super Bowl title this year, this should be a close game. The spread sits at Colts -2.5, while the total is just 39.5. This should be a defensive, competitive game. I’ll be playing this three-leg parlay on Monday night:

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Leg 1: Colts ML (-140)

The last few weeks have been eventful in Indianapolis. They benched starting QB Matt Ryan for Sam Ehlinger, fired head coach Frank Reich, hired the inexperienced Jeff Saturday as interim coach, and then made Matt Ryan the starter again. While the process has been questionable, the results have been solid. Saturday’s first two games as head coach were a win over the Raiders and a one-point home loss to the heavily favored Eagles. In both games, they played solid defense and mistake-free offense.

Pittsburgh is arguably worse than either of these teams. They’ve lost three of their last four games, with the only win coming against the struggling Saints. While their offense exploded for 30 points last week against the Bengals, they’ve largely struggled offensively this year. Rookie QB Kenny Pickett is getting his feet under him, and they’ve struggled to make big plays with him running the offense.

Given the Colts’ heightened level of play in recent weeks and their home-field advantage on Monday night, this ML price seems like a great value. I expect them to win this game without too much trouble.

Leg 2: Michael Pittman over 79.5 Receiving Yards (+155)

Coming into the season, Michael Pittman was a trendy pick to have a breakout year. While he hasn’t quite been the star fantasy owners had hoped for, he’s seen very consistent volume in an offense without many other options. Pittman has seen at least six targets every game this year, including 16 over his last two games with Matt Ryan starting once again.

On Monday, Pittman will take on the worst defense in the NFL regarding stopping WRs. The Steelers allow 203 receiving yards per game to opposing WRs – the highest mark in the league by a significant margin. It’s clear that teams have attacked this weakness consistently when going against Pittsburgh. 

With Pittman standing out as the Colts’ lone star WR, I think he’ll have one of his highest-volume games of the year. Given the Steelers’ struggles in containing opposing wideouts, these opportunities should be able to yield 80+ receiving yards.

Leg 3: Steelers under 2.5 Team TDs (-230)

While the Steelers played a great offensive game last week, they’ve largely struggled offensively this year. Last week was the only time this season that they’ve scored more than two TDs all season. This year is mainly about developing rookie QB Kenny Pickett on offense for Pittsburgh. While he’s shown promise, this has come at the expense of offensive explosiveness. Before last week, Pittsburgh’s longest TD of the entire season was just 8 yards.

On the other hand, Indianapolis has played pretty good defense this season. They’ve allowed three or more TDs just once in their past five games. With Pittsburgh being possibly the worst offense they’ve faced in that stretch, I expect them to hold the Steelers in check on Monday.

This price feels like an overreaction to Pittsburgh’s big offensive game last week, and I’ll gladly short the Steelers’ offense on Monday.

Parlay Odds: +450

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