Matthew Freedman’s NFL Week 13 Projected Spreads, Predictions & Best Bets
Dec 1, 2022 - 3:30 PMIn this article each week, I present 1) my personal spread projections for each game, 2) the bets against the spread (ATS) that I like and 3) the five games that — as of writing — I’m most likely to enter into the $1M DraftKings picks contest. On Sunday, I’ll tweet out my final five for the contest and embed that tweet here as an update.
I track all of my picks collectively in the BettingPros App and BettingPros Discord.
Prop Bet Analyzer: View top rated props and historical prop performance by player >>
Week 12 Record
- Picks in BettingPros Tracker, Discord & Articles: 7-7 (-0.72 units)
- Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 2-3
Year-to-Date Record
- Picks in BettingPros Tracker, Discord & Articles: 84-70-2 (+7.18 units)
- Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 30-25
All odds are from our BettingPros matchups page, where you can see the percentage distributions of spread, over/under and moneyline bets tracked in the BettingPros App.
Freedman’s Week 13 Projections Against the Spread
Here are my personal spread projections for each Week 13 game, ordered according to when each game kicks off. The consensus lines are pulled from our BettingPros odds page on Wednesday and are presented — along with my projected lines and edges — from the perspective of the home team.
Note: I update my personal projections as well as our premium BettingPros spread projections throughout the week. These projections and odds are as of Wed., Nov. 30, at 11:30 pm ET.
Home Team | Road Team | Consensus Line | Freedman Line | Projected Edge |
NE | BUF | 3.5 | 4.25 | 0.75 |
ATL | PIT | 1 | -1 | -2 |
BAL | DEN | -8 | -8.5 | -0.5 |
HOU | CLE | 7 | 8.25 | 1.25 |
DET | JAX | 1 | -0.5 | -1.5 |
CHI | GB | 4.5 | 4.5 | 0 |
NYG | WAS | 2.5 | 0 | -2.5 |
MIN | NYJ | -3 | -4.5 | -1.5 |
PHI | TEN | -5.5 | -6.25 | -0.75 |
LAR | SEA | 7.5 | 6.5 | -1 |
SF | MIA | -4 | -4 | 0 |
CIN | KC | 2.5 | 3 | 0.5 |
LV | LAC | 1.5 | -1 | -2.5 |
DAL | IND | -11 | -9.75 | 1.25 |
TB | NO | -3.5 | -4 | -0.5 |
Based on my current spread projections as well as other factors (matchup specifics, injuries, etc.), I’m willing to bet on three teams at their consensus lines.
- Browns -7 at Texans
- Giants +2.5 vs. Commanders
- Raiders +1.5 vs. Chargers
Freedman’s Week 13 ATS Bet Breakdowns
Here are stats and notes for the three games with spread bets I like right now.
Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans
Check out our Browns at Texans matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Dec. 4, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: NRG Stadium
- TV: CBS
Browns at Texans: Consensus Spread & Betting Percentages
Percentage data from Action Network and as of Nov. 30.
- Spread: Browns -7
- Betting Percentages: Browns – 78% bets, 85% money
Browns at Texans: 2022 ATS Records
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI).
- Browns ATS: 5-5-1 (-4.4% ROI)
- Texans ATS: 5-6 (-13.8% ROI)
Houston Texans: Notable Trends
- HC Lovie Smith: 41-51-1 ATS (-14.0% ROI) at home in NFL
- HC Lovie Smith: 13-17 ATS (-16.2% ROI) at home in college football
Browns at Texans: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Browns Offense vs. Texans Defense
Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
EPA per Play | 0.066 | 6 | 0.052 | 23 | 17 |
Total SR | 45.8% | 12 | 45.4% | 22 | 10 |
Total DVOA | 15.8% | 4 | 9.6% | 27 | 23 |
Dropback EPA | 0.093 | 10 | 0.12 | 26 | 16 |
Dropback SR | 46.3% | 18 | 47.0% | 21 | 3 |
Pass DVOA | 26.8% | 8 | 12.7% | 24 | 16 |
Adj. Sack Rate | 6.2% | 12 | 7.1% | 19 | 7 |
Rush EPA | 0.028 | 3 | -0.025 | 25 | 22 |
Rush SR | 45.3% | 4 | 43.7% | 26 | 22 |
Rush DVOA | 9.9% | 3 | 6.4% | 30 | 27 |
Adj. Line Yards | 4.45 | 14 | 4.93 | 30 | 16 |
Yards per Play | 5.6 | 11 | 5.7 | 20 | 9 |
Points per Game | 23.9 | 11 | 23.6 | 22 | 11 |
Texans Offense vs. Browns Defense
Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
EPA per Play | -0.141 | 32 | 0.107 | 31 | -1 |
Total SR | 38.5% | 31 | 46.0% | 25 | -6 |
Total DVOA | -28.8% | 32 | 11.3% | 29 | -3 |
Dropback EPA | -0.177 | 32 | 0.103 | 22 | -10 |
Dropback SR | 37.9% | 31 | 46.8% | 20 | -11 |
Pass DVOA | -29.8% | 32 | 12.4% | 22 | -10 |
Adj. Sack Rate | 9.0% | 26 | 7.6% | 15 | -11 |
Rush EPA | -0.070 | 18 | 0.115 | 32 | 14 |
Rush SR | 39.8% | 21 | 44.8% | 27 | 6 |
Rush DVOA | -17.4% | 28 | 10.1% | 31 | 3 |
Adj. Line Yards | 4.09 | 27 | 4.98 | 31 | 4 |
Yards per Play | 4.8 | 30 | 5.7 | 20 | -10 |
Points per Game | 15.8 | 30 | 26 | 30 | 0 |
Browns at Texans: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 176 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Deshaun Watson
This is Watson’s first game of the 2022 season and first game in general since the end of the 2020 season.
Career: Deshaun Watson
- AY/A: 8.6
- QB Elo per Game: 62.9
2022: Kyle Allen
Metric | Output | Rank |
ATS Value vs. Avg. | -2 | 39 |
Career: Kyle Allen
- AY/A: 6.3
- QB Elo per Game: -67.3
Key Takeaway: QB Deshaun Watson Returns to Action — and to Houston
Brissett has had the best season of his career as the fill-in starter. He has been an above-average quarterback through Week 12.
Metric | Output | Rank |
EPA + CPOE | 0.105 | 10 |
AY/A | 7 | 14 |
QBR | 61.4 | 7 |
ATS Value vs. Avg. | 0.3 | 19 |
But Watson is unquestionably better. He might be rusty in his first game since Jan. 3, 2021 — especially given that he’s on a new team with a new head coach and new teammates in a new offensive system — but he’s still an upgrade on Brissett.
In his 2020 campaign, he was No. 1 in the league with 4,823 yards passing and No. 2 with a 9.5 AY/A.
In his absence, the Browns have had a top-12 offense — maybe even a top-six offense.
- EPA per Play: 0.066 (No. 6)
- Total DVOA: 15.8% (No. 4)
It’s unlikely that the offense will be worse with Watson — and it could be significantly better.
As for the Texans, they are the worst team in the league. In theory, this is their Super Bowl. They could have a larger home-field advantage than usual: I imagine that the fans will be particularly hostile to Watson given everything that has transpired since he last played for the Texans. For the team more than for Watson, this is the ultimate #RevengeGame.
But I doubt that actually matters.
Even as a backup, QB Kyle Allen is a subpar player — and now he’s the starter. The offense is lifeless, and the defense could be without No. 1 CB Derek Stingley (hamstring), who has missed the past two weeks.
Unfortunately for Houston, this matchup points to a big win for Cleveland.
Best Line: Browns -7 (-110, DraftKings)
First Recommended: Browns -5.5 (-110)
Personal Projection: Browns -8.25
Washington Commanders at New York Giants
Check out our Commanders at Giants matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Dec. 4, 2022, 1 pm ET
- Location: MetLife Stadium
- TV: FOX
Commanders at Giants: Consensus Spread & Betting Percentages
Percentage data from Action Network and as of Nov. 30.
- Spread: Giants +2.5
- Betting Percentages: Commanders – 33% bets, 67% money
Commanders at Giants: 2022 ATS Records
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI).
- Commanders ATS: 7-4-1 (19.5% ROI)
- Giants ATS: 8-3 (40.2% ROI)
New York Giants: Notable Trends
- QB Daniel Jones: 23-14 ATS (19.8% ROI) as underdog
- QB Daniel Jones: 10-5 ATS (28.3% ROI) in division
- QB Daniel Jones: 8-3 ATS (39.8% ROI) as underdog in division
Commanders at Giants: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Commanders Offense vs. Giants Defense
Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
EPA per Play | -0.053 | 27 | 0.056 | 25 | -2 |
Total SR | 41.6% | 26 | 44.4% | 18 | -8 |
Total DVOA | -12.1% | 26 | 10.3% | 28 | 2 |
Dropback EPA | -0.049 | 27 | 0.103 | 22 | -5 |
Dropback SR | 42.6% | 28 | 46.3% | 15 | -13 |
Pass DVOA | -5.8% | 26 | 15.0% | 28 | 2 |
Adj. Sack Rate | 7.9% | 20 | 5.5% | 26 | 6 |
Rush EPA | -0.059 | 15 | -0.014 | 26 | 11 |
Rush SR | 40.3% | 17 | 41.4% | 17 | 0 |
Rush DVOA | -13.1% | 25 | 4.2% | 27 | 2 |
Adj. Line Yards | 4.23 | 21 | 4.74 | 26 | 5 |
Yards per Play | 4.9 | 27 | 5.8 | 26 | -1 |
Points per Game | 19.4 | 24 | 21.1 | 14 | -10 |
Giants Offense vs. Commanders Defense
Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
EPA per Play | 0.047 | 11 | -0.048 | 7 | -4 |
Total SR | 43.8% | 18 | 40.6% | 4 | -14 |
Total DVOA | 3.1% | 16 | -5.9% | 11 | -5 |
Dropback EPA | 0.088 | 12 | -0.005 | 9 | -3 |
Dropback SR | 46.6% | 17 | 42.5% | 3 | -14 |
Pass DVOA | 17.8% | 12 | 3.2% | 14 | 2 |
Adj. Sack Rate | 9.3% | 30 | 7.6% | 14 | -16 |
Rush EPA | -0.010 | 8 | -0.119 | 5 | -3 |
Rush SR | 40.0% | 19 | 37.6% | 5 | -14 |
Rush DVOA | -0.7% | 11 | -18.4% | 4 | -7 |
Adj. Line Yards | 4.15 | 23 | 4.08 | 9 | -14 |
Yards per Play | 5.1 | 24 | 5.3 | 11 | -13 |
Points per Game | 20.5 | 22 | 19.7 | 10 | -12 |
Commanders at Giants: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 176 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Taylor Heinicke
Metric | Output | Rank |
EPA + CPOE | 0.049 | 27 |
AY/A | 6.3 | 26 |
ATS Value vs. Avg. | -1.9 | 38 |
Career: Taylor Heinicke
- AY/A: 6.2
- QB Elo per Game: -38.8
2022: Daniel Jones
Metric | Output | Rank |
EPA + CPOE | 0.097 | 12 |
AY/A | 6.9 | 17 |
QBR | 58.1 | 12 |
ATS Value vs. Avg. | 0.1 | 20 |
Career: Daniel Jones
- AY/A: 6.4
- QB Elo per Game: -23.8
Key Takeaway: Commanders Defense Isn’t Much Better Than Giants Offense
I think the market is overweighting the strength of the Commanders defense. It’s fine. It’s good.
But it’s not great — and defenses that aren’t either really great or really bad are all on a continuum.
The Commanders have a defensive edge against the Giants offense, but it’s not a massive edge.
EPA Per Play
- Commanders Defense: -0.048 (No. 7)
- Giants Offense: 0.047 (No. 11)
Total DVOA
- Commanders Defense: -5.9% (No. 11)
- Giants Offense: 3.1% (No. 16)
There’s not a wide gap in quality between these two units.
Even when we look at the matchups for the passing and running games, no large edges appear.
Dropback EPA Per Play
- Commanders Defense: -0.005 (No. 9)
- Giants Offense: 0.088 (No. 12)
Rush EPA Per Play
- Commanders Defense: -0.119 (No. 5)
- Giants Offense: -0.010 (No. 8)
Again, the Commanders defense has a small edge, but that’s not enough to explain the spread.
Now think about where the Giants have an edge.
The Giants are at home. They have three extra days of rest because they played on Thanksgiving. They could be healthier, given that RT Evan Neal (knee), C Jon Feliciano (neck), TE Daniel Bellinger (eye) and CB Fabian Moreau (oblique) — all of whom missed last week — were able to open this week with a practice.
As a strategist and decision maker, HC Brian Daboll is probably better than HC Ron Rivera. QB Daniel Jones is unquestionably better than QB Taylor Heinicke. And Jones has historically outperformed market expectations as an underdog — especially in division.
If you give me a divisional matchup between two teams roughly in the same tier, but I can bet on the team with the better coach and quarterback at home as an underdog, I’ll do it almost every time.
Best Line: Giants +2.5 (-107, PointsBet)
First Recommended: Giants +2 (-110)
Personal Projection: Giants Pick’Em
If you like a shorter underdog, historically it has been more profitable to bet it on the moneyline than against the spread. This has been the case for underdogs of less than a touchdown.
Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders
Check out our Chargers at Raiders matchup page.
- Kickoff: Sunday, Dec. 4, 2022, 4:25 pm ET
- Location: Allegiant Stadium
- TV: CBS
Chargers at Raiders: Consensus Spread & Betting Percentages
Percentage data from Action Network and as of Nov. 30.
- Spread: Raiders +1.5
- Betting Percentages: Raiders – 48% bets, 87% money
Chargers at Raiders: 2022 ATS Records
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI).
- Chargers ATS: 7-4 (21.4% ROI)
- Raiders ATS: 5-6 (-11.6% ROI)
Las Vegas Raiders: Notable Trends
- QB Derek Carr: 51-42-1 ATS (6.4% ROI) as underdog
- QB Derek Carr: 3-1 ATS (46.5% ROI) as 2022 underdog
- 2022 Underdogs: 99-75-4 ATS (8.8% ROI)
- 2022 Underdogs: 33-20 ATS (19.2% ROI) in division
Chargers at Raiders: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Chargers Offense vs. Raiders Defense
Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
EPA per Play | 0.001 | 17 | 0.086 | 29 | 12 |
Total SR | 42.8% | 21 | 48.9% | 30 | 9 |
Total DVOA | -7.3% | 23 | 17.9% | 32 | 9 |
Dropback EPA | 0.042 | 18 | 0.227 | 32 | 14 |
Dropback SR | 45.0% | 21 | 53.4% | 32 | 11 |
Pass DVOA | 4.7% | 21 | 33.1% | 32 | 11 |
Adj. Sack Rate | 5.2% | 5 | 4.8% | 29 | 24 |
Rush EPA | -0.094 | 25 | -0.127 | 4 | -21 |
Rush SR | 37.8% | 27 | 42.0% | 19 | -8 |
Rush DVOA | -19.1% | 30 | -1.4% | 23 | -7 |
Adj. Line Yards | 4.08 | 28 | 4.15 | 10 | -18 |
Yards per Play | 5.2 | 22 | 5.9 | 28 | 6 |
Points per Game | 22.9 | 13 | 25.1 | 26 | 13 |
Raiders Offense vs. Chargers Defense
Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
EPA per Play | 0.046 | 12 | 0.07 | 27 | 15 |
Total SR | 43.6% | 19 | 45.9% | 24 | 5 |
Total DVOA | 6.3% | 11 | 4.7% | 22 | 11 |
Dropback EPA | 0.115 | 9 | 0.107 | 25 | 16 |
Dropback SR | 44.3% | 23 | 46.7% | 19 | -4 |
Pass DVOA | 13.1% | 17 | 4.7% | 15 | -2 |
Adj. Sack Rate | 6.0% | 11 | 6.7% | 21 | 10 |
Rush EPA | -0.075 | 19 | 0.016 | 28 | 9 |
Rush SR | 42.3% | 11 | 44.8% | 27 | 16 |
Rush DVOA | 8.1% | 4 | 4.6% | 29 | 25 |
Adj. Line Yards | 5.18 | 1 | 4.83 | 28 | 27 |
Yards per Play | 5.9 | 5 | 6 | 30 | 25 |
Points per Game | 24.1 | 10 | 25.6 | 29 | 19 |
Chargers at Raiders: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 176 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Justin Herbert
Metric | Output | Rank |
EPA + CPOE | 0.077 | 18 |
AY/A | 6.6 | 23 |
QBR | 61.1 | 8 |
ATS Value vs. Avg. | 2.0 | 8 |
Career: Justin Herbert
- AY/A: 7.3
- QB Elo per Game: 69.4
2022: Derek Carr
Metric | Output | Rank |
EPA + CPOE | 0.091 | 13 |
AY/A | 7.2 | 12 |
QBR | 61 | 9 |
ATS Value vs. Avg. | 0.6 | 16 |
Career: Derek Carr
- AY/A: 7.1
- QB Elo per Game: 14.7
Key Matchup: Raiders Run Offense vs. Chargers Run Defense
World-beating RB Josh Jacobs (calf) is dealing with an injury — but he had the same injury last week, when he had a 33-229-2 rushing performance, and he was able to open this week with a limited practice on Wednesday, so I expect him to play on Sunday.
And that should be the difference in this game for the Raiders, who have a top-12 offense and top-six rush attack. They have a massive edge against the Chargers defense, which is horrifically vulnerable to the run, so much so that it actually impacts their overall performance in yards per play and points per game.
Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
Rush DVOA | 0.081 | 4 | 0.046 | 29 | 25 |
Adj. Line Yards | 5.18 | 1 | 4.83 | 28 | 27 |
Yards per Play | 5.9 | 5 | 6 | 30 | 25 |
Points per Game | 24.1 | 10 | 25.6 | 29 | 19 |
On the opposite side of the ball, the Chargers offense should theoretically have a large advantage against the Raiders defense, which has (in my unit power rankings) the No. 32 secondary in the league — but I’m skeptical that the Chargers will actually be able to exploit this matchup in a maximal way, given that they have a dink-and-dunk pass offense and will likely be without WR Mike Williams (ankle), who has played just six snaps since Week 8.
With their rushing dominance, the Raiders have the largest edge in this matchup.
Best Line: Raiders +1.5 (-110, BetMGM)
First Recommended: Raiders +2.5 (-105)
Personal Projection: Raiders -1
Freedman’s 5 ATS Picks for Season-Long Contests
Here are the five spread bets that (right now) I’m leaning toward in the DraftKings picks contest.
Note: The lines for this contest can vary from those highlighted above.
- Vikings -2.5 vs. Jets
- Browns -6.5 at Texans
- Titans +5.5 at Eagles
- Giants +2.5 vs Commanders
- Raiders +1.5 vs. Chargers
But if I’m being honest I expect this list to change a lot before Sunday based on line movement.
Look for my tweet update on Sunday before kickoff.
UPDATE (Sun. 12/4): Here’s the tweet.
Here are my five plays for the Week 12 DraftKings picks contest, barring any surprise inactives, line movement, or last-minute pivots.
Steelers +1.5
Vikings -2.5
Browns -6.5
Chiefs -1.5
Raiders +1.5— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) December 4, 2022
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