NFL Week 13 First Touchdown Scorer Odds, Picks & Predictions (2022)

Dec 2, 2022 - 2:07 PM

Someone must score the first TD of the game, and this article will help you increase your odds of hitting on that player based on matchups and team strengths. It will feature a selection for each game of the Sunday slate.

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Pittsburgh Steelers @ Atlanta Falcons

Drake London
Odds: +1300 via FanDuel Sportsbook

The Steelers have been stout against the run this season but have allowed teams to throw for 263.7 passing yards per game. They have given up the second most passing TDs at 23 and allow 11.8 yards per completion. London has accounted for 25% of Atlanta’s targets this season while Kyle Pitts underwent surgery on his knee and was placed on injured reserve this week. Each team uses multiple backs to carry the load, so picking the right one becomes much more difficult. Drake London has the best value of any pass catcher and has a solid matchup. He is offered as low as +950 elsewhere, so there is value here.

Denver Broncos @ Baltimore Ravens

Gus Edwards
Odds: +600 via DraftKings Sportsbook

In this market, it is extremely tough to bet on someone from the Broncos. The Broncos’ offense averages 14.3 points per game and has looked abysmal on offense. The Ravens are averaging 25 points per game and are the second-best team in rushing yards allowed per game. The Broncos have an elite defense that only allows 17.6 points per game but has allowed 121.6 rushing yards per game. Baltimore should run the ball from the start, and Gus Edwards is the likely beneficiary. In his return from injury last week, he ran the ball 16 times for 52 yards and a touchdown. Besides Lamar Jackson, no other Ravens player had more than two carries, so Edwards should dominate the touches.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Detroit Lions

Christian Kirk
Odds: +900 via DraftKings Sportsbook

Travis Etienne Jr. and Zay Jones have been dealing with injuries this week and have only logged limited practice sessions. If one or both misses the game, expect Kirk to be the one to step up and assume a larger role. He already accounts for 23.6% of the team’s targets this season and has seven touchdowns. The Lions have been near the bottom of many defensive statistical categories, despite the success of their offense. Kirk offers good value and a high target share, which makes him a good bet.

Cleveland Browns @ Houston Texans

Nick Chubb
Odds: +490 via FanDuel Sportsbook

Nick Chubb will likely be a popular bet at most sportsbooks on Sunday. Every week, the Texans are an automatic fade due to their poor run defense. They allow 168.6 rushing yards per game, which is the worst in the league. Chubb has already eclipsed 1,000 yards rushing and sits just one TD behind Jamaal Williams for the most in the league. He has an exceptional opportunity to add a few more this week. Deshaun Watson is also making his debut for the team, and the offense may look different. The one constant should be the run game, so Chubb is an excellent play.

New York Jets @ Minnesota Vikings

Garrett Wilson
Odds: +1100 via DraftKings Sportsbook

The Vikings continue to win close games and give up a lot of yards. They rank dead last in the league in passing yards allowed per game at 276.1 and give up 23.4 points per game. Mike White threw for 315 yards last week against a decent Bears’ secondary, and he loved throwing to Wilson. No other player had more than three targets besides Wilson, who had eight. He caught five balls for 95 yards and two touchdowns and continues to show flashes of brilliance. Wilson has only scored TDs while playing with quarterbacks besides Zach Wilson. He is a good value bet this week, given his limited success with Mike White.

Washington Commanders @ New York Giants

Brian Robinson Jr.
Odds: +550 via FanDuel Sportsbook

Robinson ran for 105 yards and a touchdown last week against the Falcons, and it was the first 100-yard game of his career. He can carry the momentum of that game into this matchup against a weak Giants’ run defense. The Giants allow 138.9 rushing yards per game, so Robinson has the potential to have another big day. Antonio Gibson will likely take some of Robinson’s touches but expect Ron Rivera to ride the hot hand a little more on Sunday.

Tennessee Titans @ Philadelphia Eagles

Derrick Henry
Odds: +550 via FanDuel Sportsbook

Derrick Henry is averaging 95.3 yards per game, but it is that time in the season when he starts having monster games. He has always gotten better as the season extends because of his physical running style. The Titans score far fewer points per game than the Eagles, but Henry has a solid matchup. The Eagles allow 4.7 yards per carry and recently signed Ndamukong Suh and Linval Joseph due to injuries on the defensive front. The Eagles have multiple injuries on defense, and Henry can take advantage.

Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears

David Montgomery
Odds: Not Listed Yet

The odds for this game are not available because Aaron Rodgers is questionable. This market likely will not be released until his status for this game is announced. The Packers give up the second-most rushing yards in the league, though. Montgomery will likely be the favorite in this market, but Justin Fields may be near him. Due to Fields’ shoulder injury to his non-throwing shoulder, the Bears may call less-designed runs for him and feed their running backs. Remember to always look for the best odds available here when they are released.

Miami Dolphins @ San Francisco 49ers

Trent Sherfield
Odds: +2900 via FanDuel Sportsbook

Either offense could go down and score immediately, so the best method is to find the best value. Sherfield used to play in San Francisco, so it is likely that he has familiarity with their secondary. He is not a huge name, but he has had back-to-back games with five targets. He has 24 catches on the season, which ties Mike Gesicki for third on the team. Both teams are good against the run but give up yards via the air. Both offenses also have a plethora of playmakers, and choosing the right one is challenging. You might as well take a shot in the dark and keep the bet size small to minimize risk.

Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Rams

Kenneth Walker III
Odds: +400 via DraftKings Sportsbook

Aaron Donald has an ankle injury and will miss this game, which should leave a hole in the Rams’ defense. Matthew Stafford is doubtful to play this week, as well. The Rams have been hit by the injury bug this season and are not a great team to play in this market. Kenneth Walker III stepped into the starting role due to injury and has not looked back. Since Walker took over as a starter, he has only had one game without a TD and has three games with multiple TDs. The Rams have allowed just 97.3 rushing yards per game this season, but that number is likely to increase without Donald. He can single-handedly scare teams from running the ball. Walker is a hard runner, and the Seahawks will want to wear down this defense by getting him the ball early.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Las Vegas Raiders

Josh Jacobs
Odds: +550 via DraftKings Sportsbook

Josh Jacobs is the leader in the league in rushing after his excellent performance last week. He scored the game-winning touchdown on an 86-yard run. He is listed on the injury report due to a calf strain but was in the same position last week. He practiced in a limited capacity on Wednesday and Thursday, which is a good sign. The Chargers allow 151.4 rushing yards per game and 5.4 rushing yards per attempt. They are bad at stopping the run, so this play is as much about the matchup as it is about the player. If Jacobs does not suit up, his backup, Zamir White, is the best play. Be sure to look here for the best available odds in your area.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Cincinnati Bengals

Hayden Hurst
Odds: +1600 via FanDuel Sportsbook

It is hard to pinpoint the best play when both teams have a plethora of playmakers. However, the Chiefs are horrendous against tight ends, and Hurst has a fantastic price tag. The Chiefs have given up 15 TDs to tight ends this season and are leading that category by six TDs. Almost every team they have played has exploited this weakness, so the Bengals should be aware of the trend. Hurst tied Tee Higgins for the team lead in targets last week, but that was without Ja’Marr Chase. Still, Hurst has a 14.5% target share and a great matchup this week.

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