Matthew Freedman’s NFL Week 14 Projected Spreads, Predictions & Best Bets

Dec 8, 2022 - 3:29 PM

In this article each week, I present 1) my personal spread projections for each game, 2) the bets against the spread (ATS) that I like and 3) the five games that — as of writing — I’m most likely to enter into the $1M DraftKings picks contest. On Sunday, I’ll tweet out my final five for the contest and embed that tweet here as an update.

I track all of my picks collectively in the BettingPros App and BettingPros Discord.

Prop Bet Analyzer: View top rated props and historical prop performance by player >>

Week 13 Record

Picks in BettingPros Tracker, Discord & Articles: 10-3 (+6.7 units)
Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 4-1

Year-to-Date Record

Picks in BettingPros Tracker, Discord & Articles: 94-73-2 (+13.9 units)
Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 34-26

All odds are from our BettingPros matchups page, where you can see the percentage distributions of spread, over/under and moneyline bets tracked in the BettingPros App.

Freedman’s Week 14 Projections Against the Spread

Here are my personal spread projections for each Week 13 game, ordered according to when each game kicks off. The consensus lines are pulled from our BettingPros odds page on Wednesday and are presented — along with my projected lines and edges — from the perspective of the home team.

Note: I update my personal projections as well as our premium BettingPros spread projections throughout the week. These projections and odds are as of Wed., Dec. 7, at 11:30 pm ET.

Home Team	Road Team	Consensus Line	Freedman Line	Projected Edge
LAR	LV	6.5	6	-0.5
BUF	NYJ	-9.5	-11.25	-1.75
DET	MIN	-2.5	0	2.5
NYG	PHI	7	6.5	-0.5
CIN	CLE	-6	-5	1
DAL	HOU	-16.5	-16.5	0
PIT	BAL	-2.5	-1.5	1
TEN	JAX	-4	-3.75	0.25
DEN	KC	9.5	7.25	-2.25
SEA	CAR	-3.5	-7	-3.5
SF	TB	-3.5	-2.75	0.75
LAC	MIA	3	1.25	-1.75
ARI	NE	1.5	0.75	-0.75

Based on my current spread projections as well as other factors (matchup specifics, injuries, etc.), I’m willing to bet on three teams at their consensus lines.

Bills -9.5 vs. Jets
Broncos +9.5 vs. Chiefs
Seahawks -3.5 vs. Panthers

Freedman’s Week 14 ATS Bet Breakdowns

Here are stats and notes for the three games with spread bets I like right now.

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills

Check out our Jets at Bills matchup page.

Kickoff: Sunday, Dec. 11, 2022, 1 pm ET
Location: Highmark Stadium
TV: CBS

Jets at Bills: Consensus Spread & Betting Percentages

Percentage data from Action Network and as of Dec. 7.

Spread: Bills -9.5
Betting Percentages: Bills – 38% bets, 79% money

Jets at Bills: 2022 ATS Records

Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI).

Jets ATS: 7-5 (11.7% ROI)
Bills ATS: 5-6-1 (-13.2% ROI)

Jets at Bills: Team Statistics

Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).

Jets Offense vs. Bills Defense

Metric	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank	Offense Edge
EPA per Play	-0.038	25	-0.021	9	-16
Total SR	40.6%	29	45.3%	21	-8
Total DVOA	-2.9%	19	-13.0%	4	-15
Dropback EPA	-0.047	28	0.025	10	-18
Dropback SR	42.2%	29	46.9%	21	-8
Pass DVOA	2.8%	23	-6.7%	7	-16
Adj. Sack Rate	6.4%	12	7.3%	14	2
Rush EPA	-0.021	10	-0.113	6	-4
Rush SR	37.8%	26	42.0%	18	-8
Rush DVOA	-0.6%	12	-22.0%	3	-9
Adj. Line Yards	4.20	22	3.71	3	-19
Yards per Play	5.3	19	5.2	10	-9
Points per Game	21	18	17.4	4	-14

Bills Offense vs. Jets Defense

Metric	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank	Offense Edge
EPA per Play	0.123	3	-0.05	7	4
Total SR	49.8%	1	42.7%	8	7
Total DVOA	16.1%	4	-12.5%	5	1
Dropback EPA	0.229	2	-0.043	6	4
Dropback SR	53.0%	3	43.3%	7	4
Pass DVOA	33.9%	4	-12.7%	5	1
Adj. Sack Rate	5.7%	6	8.0%	9	3
Rush EPA	-0.089	23	-0.060	18	-5
Rush SR	43.3%	8	41.6%	16	8
Rush DVOA	-4.0%	17	-12.3%	11	-6
Adj. Line Yards	4.25	20	4.08	8	-12
Yards per Play	6.2	3	4.8	2	-1
Points per Game	27.8	3	18.6	6	3

Jets at Bills: Quarterback Statistics

Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 208 plays for EPA + CPOE. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.

2022: Mike White

Metric	Output	Rank
ATS Value vs. Avg.	-2.4	42

Career: Mike White

AY/A: 6.2
QB Elo per Game: 5.6

2022: Josh Allen

Metric	Output	Rank
EPA + CPOE	0.148	5
AY/A	7.7	8
QBR	75.1	3
ATS Value vs. Avg.	4.2	2

Career: Josh Allen

AY/A: 7.2
QB Elo per Game: 66.8

Key Takeaway: Anything Less Than -10 Is Not Enough

When the Jets hosted the Bills in Week 9, the Bills were -10.5. Yeah, they suffered a 20-17 loss, and the Jets are better with Mike White at quarterback than Zach Wilson, but the Bills are now at Highmark Stadium, where they have a significant home-field advantage — and yet they’re only -9.5?

That doesn’t add up, especially since the Bills are playing with three extra days of rest and the Jets are on a 3-of-4 away streak.

The difference between these two teams is real. In the Massey-Peabody Power Rankings, the Bills have a +7.91 rating. The Jets, -2.09.

And I know that we’ve seen back-to-back 300-yard passing performances out of White. He’s unquestionably an upgrade on Wilson. But let’s not pretend that we know for sure that he’s actually a good quarterback. He probably isn’t. Just last year in Week 9 he had an abysmal game against the Bills (54.6% completion rate, 1.6 AY/A, 4 interceptions). He’s almost certainly better than the typical third-string quarterback. But he’s yet to prove himself to be a starter-caliber player.

Anything less than -10 offers value on the Bills.

Best Line: Bills -9 (-110, BetMGM)
First Recommended: Bills -9.5 (-115)
Personal Projection: Bills -11.25

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos

Check out our Chiefs at Broncos matchup page.

Kickoff: Sunday, Dec. 11, 2022, 4:05 pm ET
Location: Empower Field at Mile High
TV: CBS

Chiefs at Broncos: Consensus Spread & Betting Percentages

Percentage data from Action Network and as of Dec. 7.

Spread: Broncos +9.5
Betting Percentages: Broncos – 31% bets, 64% money

Chiefs at Broncos: 2022 ATS Records

Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI).

Chiefs ATS: 4-8 (-36.1% ROI)
Broncos ATS: 4-8 (-36.4% ROI)

Kansas City Chiefs: Notable Trend

QB Patrick Mahomes: 11-16-1 ATS (12.7% ROI for faders) as favorite of more than -7

Denver Broncos: Notable Trend

QB Russell Wilson: 30-15-2 ATS (28.7% ROI) as underdog
QB Russell Wilson: 5-0 ATS (90.0% ROI) as underdog of more than +7

Chiefs at Broncos: Team Statistics

Chiefs Offense vs. Broncos Defense

Metric	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank	Offense Edge
EPA per Play	0.198	1	-0.081	4	3
Total SR	49.8%	1	40.6%	2	1
Total DVOA	24.9%	1	-10.6%	7	6
Dropback EPA	0.303	1	-0.093	3	2
Dropback SR	53.4%	2	41.1%	1	-1
Pass DVOA	41.2%	2	-14.1%	4	2
Adj. Sack Rate	4.9%	4	7.3%	15	11
Rush EPA	-0.030	11	-0.061	17	6
Rush SR	41.9%	13	39.7%	11	-2
Rush DVOA	-0.3%	11	-6.1%	17	6
Adj. Line Yards	4.69	6	4.67	25	19
Yards per Play	6.5	1	4.8	2	1
Points per Game	29.2	1	17	2	1

Broncos Offense vs. Chiefs Defense

Metric	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank	Offense Edge
EPA per Play	-0.081	28	0.041	22	-6
Total SR	38.9%	30	45.5%	23	-7
Total DVOA	-16.1%	28	7.0%	25	-3
Dropback EPA	-0.019	24	0.097	25	1
Dropback SR	40.0%	30	47.3%	23	-7
Pass DVOA	-1.9%	25	13.2%	26	1
Adj. Sack Rate	8.7%	24	9.0%	5	-19
Rush EPA	-0.188	30	-0.069	14	-16
Rush SR	37.0%	28	42.1%	19	-9
Rush DVOA	-18.4%	28	-2.9%	18	-10
Adj. Line Yards	4.28	19	4.70	26	7
Yards per Play	5	25	5.4	13	-12
Points per Game	13.8	32	22.5	15	-17

Chiefs at Broncos: Quarterback Statistics

2022: Patrick Mahomes

Metric	Output	Rank
EPA + CPOE	0.188	2
AY/A	8.6	3
QBR	78.5	1
ATS Value vs. Avg.	5.6	1

Career: Patrick Mahomes

AY/A: 8.7
QB Elo per Game: 122.0

2022: Russell Wilson

Metric	Output	Rank
EPA + CPOE	0.042	28
AY/A	7	13
QBR	35	28
ATS Value vs. Avg.	-1.9	40

Career: Russell Wilson

AY/A: 8.1
QB Elo per Game: 31.8

Key Takeaway: Where’s the On-Field Edge for the Chiefs?

Betting on the Broncos is disgusting. No denying that. But I’m backing a big divisional dog at home, where the elevation provides a true edge, and I like that general scenario. And as cringy as Broncos QB Russell Wilson has been this season — both on and off the field — he’s still 4-2 ATS as an underdog.

And where exactly do the Chiefs have an on-field edge?

They’re unquestionably the better team. And I’m probably higher on the Chiefs than most people are: I still have them as the No. 1 team in my power ratings. I tend to be too high on the Chiefs each week — and now I see value on the Broncos. That’s saying something.

On offense, the Chiefs have no significant edge over the Broncos defense, which is an elite unit.

Metric	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank	Offense Edge
Dropback EPA	0.303	1	-0.093	3	2
Dropback SR	0.534	2	0.411	1	-1
Pass DVOA	0.412	2	-0.141	4	2
Rush EPA	-0.03	11	-0.061	17	6
Rush SR	0.419	13	0.397	11	-2
Rush DVOA	-0.003	11	-0.061	17	6

The Broncos defense is unlikely to shut down the Chiefs offense — but it might be able to slow down QB Patrick Mahomes, and with a spread this large (and a total of just 44 points) that might be enough, especially since the Broncos offense isn’t at a massive disadvantage against the Chiefs defense.

Metric	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank	Offense Edge
Dropback EPA	-0.019	24	0.097	25	1
Dropback SR	0.4	30	0.473	23	-7
Pass DVOA	-0.019	25	0.132	26	1
Rush EPA	-0.188	30	-0.069	14	-16
Rush SR	0.37	28	0.421	19	-9
Rush DVOA	-0.184	28	-0.029	18	-10

The Broncos will be challenged in the running game, but what does that matter? They’re nearly double-digit dogs: They’re going to be forced to throw the ball more, and the Chiefs have a below-average pass defense.

I doubt that the Broncos win, but the Chiefs throughout the years have displayed a propensity for winning outright but not covering large spreads. I think that’s what happens here.

Anything more than +7 is too much for the Broncos at home.

Best Line: Broncos +9.5 (-107, PointsBet)
First Recommended: Broncos +9.5 (-110)
Personal Projection: Broncos +7.25

Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks

Check out our Panthers at Seahawks matchup page.

Kickoff: Sunday, Dec. 11, 2022, 4:05 pm ET
Location: Lumen Field
TV: FOX

Panthers at Seahawks: Consensus Spread & Betting Percentages

Percentage data from Action Network and as of Dec. 7.

Spread: Seahawks -3.5
Betting Percentages: Panthers – 46% bets, 91% money

Panthers at Seahawks: 2022 ATS Records

Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI).

Panthers ATS: 6-6 (-3.8% ROI)
Seahawks ATS: 6-6 (-4.8% ROI)

Seattle Seahawks: Notable Trends

QB Geno Smith: 9-6 ATS (15.3% ROI) with Seahawks
QB Geno Smith: 5-2 ATS (37.7% ROI) at home with Seahawks
HC Pete Carroll: 57-41-3 ATS (13.2% ROI) at home

Panthers at Seahawks: Team Statistics

Panthers Offense vs. Seahawks Defense

Metric	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank	Offense Edge
EPA per Play	-0.094	29	0.054	23	-6
Total SR	38.1%	32	42.9%	9	-23
Total DVOA	-17.5%	30	4.4%	20	-10
Dropback EPA	-0.156	31	0.107	26	-5
Dropback SR	35.7%	32	45.7%	14	-18
Pass DVOA	-23.0%	30	6.9%	18	-12
Adj. Sack Rate	7.7%	18	7.8%	11	-7
Rush EPA	-0.016	9	-0.020	23	14
Rush SR	41.2%	17	38.9%	8	-9
Rush DVOA	-4.2%	18	1.6%	24	6
Adj. Line Yards	4.59	8	4.58	21	13
Yards per Play	5.2	20	5.7	20	0
Points per Game	19.2	25	25.3	28	3

Seahawks Offense vs. Panthers Defense

Metric	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank	Offense Edge
EPA per Play	0.075	6	-0.011	11	5
Total SR	47.6%	5	44.1%	13	8
Total DVOA	9.6%	8	4.5%	21	13
Dropback EPA	0.151	6	0.027	11	5
Dropback SR	54.1%	1	45.0%	11	10
Pass DVOA	31.0%	5	9.2%	20	15
Adj. Sack Rate	9.1%	28	5.8%	24	-4
Rush EPA	-0.062	17	-0.065	15	-2
Rush SR	35.8%	30	42.9%	23	-7
Rush DVOA	-7.9%	20	-1.1%	22	2
Adj. Line Yards	4.03	30	4.33	16	-14
Yards per Play	6	4	5.3	11	7
Points per Game	26.5	5	22.2	14	9

Panthers at Seahawks: Quarterback Statistics

2022: Sam Darnold

Metric	Output	Rank
ATS Value vs. Avg.	-1.7	37

Career: Sam Darnold

AY/A: 5.8
QB Elo per Game: -76.0

2022: Geno Smith

Metric	Output	Rank
EPA + CPOE	0.156	4
AY/A	8.5	4
QBR	64.8	5
ATS Value vs. Avg.	1.8	10

Career: Geno Smith

AY/A: 6.6
QB Elo per Game: -32.0

Key Takeaway: I Might Be Wrong … But I Don’t Think I Am

I’m the moron who thought I was getting in good at -6.5 only to see this line strongly move against him all the way to -3.5.

Ouch.

So maybe I’m way off on this.

When the market speaks, I’ve learned that I should pay attention.

But I’m betting (literally) that the market is wrong in this spot.

At Lumen Field, the Seahawks have one of the best home-field advantages in the league. Yes, the Panthers are coming off the bye … but I’m skeptical that the bye actually means all that much against the spread to a non-playoff contender late in the season.

When you factor in the home-field advantage for the Seahawks and the rest advantage for the Panthers, this line is saying that the Seahawks are about 1-2 points better than the Panthers — and that’s just wrong.

Without adjusting for short-term injuries, I have the Seahawks power rated as five points better than the Panthers. Maybe I’m being optimistically aggressive with the Seahawks and pessimistically dismissive of the Panthers — but the Massey-Peabody Power Rankings have the Seahawks as 4.56 points better than the Panthers. I don’t believe that I’m out of line with reality.

Rather, the market is out of line.

Best Line: Seahawks -3.5 (-110, BetMGM)
First Recommended: Seahawks -6.5 (-110)
Personal Projection: Seahawks -7

Freedman’s 5 ATS Picks for Season-Long Contests

This is normally the place where I highlight the five spread bets that I’m leading toward in the DraftKings picks contest.

Note: The lines for this contest can vary from those highlighted above.

But (as of writing) something weird is going on at DraftKings. When I log in, I don’t see the normal “edit picks” button that allows me to submit picks for the week. Maybe the lines for this contest aren’t live yet? Not sure.

Anyway, I’ll provide a tweet update with my contest picks on Sunday before kickoff, and then I’ll post that tweet here.

UPDATE (Sun. 12/11): Here’s the tweet.

Based on my projections, consensus lines, and contest lines, here are my five Week 14 plays for the DraftKings picks pool (barring any late line movement/inactives):

Jags +4.5
Eagles -6.5
Browns +6.5
Cowboys -16.5
Chargers +3.5

— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) December 11, 2022

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