Predicted Line Movement for Super Bowl LVII (2023)

Jan 30, 2023 - 4:04 AM

After another thrilling weekend of conference championship football, the Super Bowl LVII matchup is set with the Kansas City Chiefs facing the Philadelphia Eagles. This is the first time since 2017 that the league’s two No. 1 seeds face each other in the Super Bowl. Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes is making his third Super Bowl appearance (1-1 in his career). Meanwhile, Philadelphia is looking to become the first team who was the last remaining undefeated team in the regular season to win the Super Bowl since the Indianapolis Colts did it in 2006.

If the Chiefs kick off as underdogs on Super Bowl Sunday, it will be the first time in Mahomes’ playoff career (14 games) that he is an underdog. If the line were to swing in Kansas City’s favor, Mahomes would tie Peyton Manning’s record of 14 consecutive playoff games as a favorite.

Will Mahomes’ and the Chiefs’ big-game experience be the difference? Or will the Eagles continue to dominate as they have all season, now 16-1 with Jalen Hurts as their starting quarterback this year?

How do these tidbits factor into bettors’ minds, and how will they affect the line movement leading to Super Bowl Sunday?

Here is a look at the early Super Bowl LVII line and predicted movement.

Get ready for the big game with our Super Bowl LVII Betting Guide >>

Super Bowl LVII Game Info

Kansas City Chiefs (16-3) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (16-3)
Date: Sunday, Feb. 12, 2023
Time: 6:30 p.m. EST
Venue: State Farm Stadium — Glendale, AZ
Coverage: FOX
Last Meeting: October 3, 2021 — The Chiefs defeated the Eagles 42-30 in Philadelphia.

Super Bowl LVII Betting Odds

(odds courtesy of FanDuel)

Opening Lines: Eagles -1.5; O/U 49.5
Moneyline: PHI: (-138) | KC: (+118)
Spread: PHI: -1.5 (-118) | KC: +1.5 (-104)
Total: 49.5 (Over: -110) | Under: (-110)

Super Bowl LVII Betting Market Analysis

Like any other game, shopping for the best number is of the utmost importance and occasionally means the difference between winning and losing a bet depending on what number bettors lock in at. While FanDuel is at Eagles -1.5, DraftKings is currently as high as -2.5.

Super Bowl LVII Point Spread Movement Predictions

Following the point spread movement at various sportsbooks thus far within the first couple of hours, this line will move a ton before kickoff. At FanDuel, the Chiefs opened at -1 and were quickly bet down to +2.

Mahomes finished the AFC Championship Game 29-of-43 for 326 yards and two touchdowns, but much of the focus in the next two weeks will be around the health of Kansas City’s wide receiving corps. Kadarius Toney, Mecole Hardman, and JuJu Smith-Schuster all left yesterday’s game with injuries, leaving Mahomes with Travis Kelce (who now has the 2nd-most playoff receiving yards) all-time with 1,467) and unproven pass catchers like Skyy Moore and Marcus Kemp. All three wide receivers will have an extra week to get healthy, and Mahomes himself will get time to heal an ankle injury that bothered him at times against Cincinnati. But we saw how aggressive Philadelphia’s defense was against San Francisco when it smelled blood with how banged up the 49ers were, and the Eagles allowed just 164 total yards.

It will likely take numerous injuries and a slew of Eagles money to get this line to the key number of -3, as the public is likely to back Mahomes and the Chiefs roster, given their Super Bowl experience.

Super Bowl LVII Total Movement Predictions

While the point spread is vastly different depending on which sportsbook one shops at, the over/under has seemingly been much more unanimous at 49.5.

NFL bettors are some of the most reactionary bunch, and often the previous week’s results weigh heavily in their decisions for the current week. However, in Philadelphia’s case, will bettors be more enamored by the 31 points it put up against the league’s top-scoring defense or the seven points it allowed to a team that had won 12 consecutive games?

The Eagles are 10-9 to the Over this year, but the Under has cashed in both of their playoff games. The Under has also cashed in both of Kansas City’s playoff games, and it was a more profitable Under team this year, cashing it in 11 of 19 games. In addition, the Under has cashed in five of the previous seven Super Bowls. Lastly, going back to 2002, Super Bowl totals of 48+ points have gone Under nine of 11 times. Thus, even if Kansas City gets positive news on the injury front over the next two weeks, bettors will likely get wind of these trends and prevent the total from ballooning.

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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