Super Bowl LVII: Notable Kansas City Chiefs Betting Trends

Notable Betting Trends Supporting the Kansas City Chiefs

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Patrick Mahomes Thrives as an Underdog

Patrick Mahomes became the youngest player to reach ten career playoff wins (27 years, 134 days). His 10-3 career postseason record is a big reason his Chiefs have never been an underdog in a playoff game he has started. Though Kansas City is currently a +1.5-point underdog, Mahomes would tie Peyton Manning’s record of 14 consecutive games being favored in the playoffs if this line were to jump the fence.

Mahomes has reveled in the underdog role in his career, going 6-3 SU and 7-1-1 ATS in nine games. In 93 career starts (including playoffs), Mahomes has covered the spread 52.7% of the time (48-43-2), and bettors that wagered $100 on each game would currently have $278 in profits.

Andy Reid Doesn’t Lose to his Former Team

Since Andy Reid became the Chiefs head coach in 2013 after 14 seasons with Philadelphia, the Eagles are 0-3 against him. Reid is the fifth head coach to face his former team in the Super Bowl. The previous four head coaches are 2-2 SU, with wins by Week Ewbank over the Colts in Super Bowl III and Jon Gruden as the Buccaneers coach over the Raiders in Super Bowl XXXVII. And Reid has a pretty successful quarterback to trot out onto the field. Mahomes is 74-19 SU in his 93 career games, and his 79.6% winning percentage is the best of any quarterback dating back to 2003.

Want even more vindication for backing the Chiefs on the moneyline? Kansas City has won each of its last ten games against NFC opponents, with the last loss coming in Super Bowl LIV to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Quarterback Super Bowl Experience Matters

Mahomes has played in two Super Bowls, while Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts is playing in his first. In the previous 34 Super Bowls where one quarterback had experience and faced another who had none, the experience quarterback’s team won 19 times. Though those teams are only 16-18 ATS in that span, that would not matter in this case, as the Chiefs would cover as +1.5-point underdogs if they won outright.

Underdogs Have Won More Super Bowls than Lost Recently With Low Spreads

Entering this year, each of the last 13 Super Bowls had point spreads of five points or fewer. In those games, the underdogs went 7-5 SU, as Super Bowl XLIX between New England and Seattle closed as a pick ’em. Underdogs are also 11-4 ATS in the last 15 Super Bowls and covered eight of the previous ten.

Speaking of low spreads, Mahomes thrives in these situations. In games where his team is favored by three points or fewer or he is an underdog, Mahomes is 18-6-1 ATS. This is opposed to a 30-37-1 ATS record in games where his team was favored by 3.5+ points.

A Hot Regular Season Start Does Not Mean Much

The Eagles started the season 8-0 and were the last remaining undefeated team in the NFL heading into Week 10. However, that does not bode well historically for their chances of winning the Super Bowl. The last team to win the Super Bowl who was also the last remaining unbeaten team in the regular season was the Indianapolis Colts in 2006.

Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our Sports Betting 101 Section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced sports betting strategy — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.

Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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