What’s the play on the over/under for the Penguins this season?

Oct 6, 2022 - 2:08 PM

Pittsburgh Penguins v New York Rangers - Game Two" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/HF4uDZTdD_EVzTFCbasCrVTbz98=/0x0:4968x2795/1920x1080/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/71461266/1395643667.0.jpg" />

As the regular season approaches, an interesting long-term outlook on the Penguins’ season total for points.

Right now on DraftKings, they are offering a line of 101.5 points for Pittsburgh’s regular season result. The odds, -110 for the over and -120 for the under, are virtually even payouts.

Last season the Pens finished with 103 points but were also just 3-7 in shootouts and dealing with injuries. However, they also had a great penalty kill and overall a top team goalie save percentage that could also regress this season to bring down results.

This fan survey isn’t as friendly, setting the Pens at 97 points for the upcoming year.

Overall the fans like the top four in the Metropolitan to finish in the same order as last year, and all of the same teams making the playoffs. The fan view could be impacted a little too much based on last season’s results, what are the odds it ends up as CAR-NYR-PIT-WSH in that order twice in a row? It’s plausible, but changes could be in order. Not that it is a bet, but I’d lean towards a different outcome then that exact order, even though predicting exactly what happens would be the challenge.

The Athletic’s model projects Pittsburgh to be at just north of 100 points. However with all the simulations, they are seeing a favorable 64% chance that the Pens get triple digits or more, seeming to suggest the over on the Vegas odds would be a good play.

Overall, the betting line for the Pens is — as Vegas lines usually are — very good in theory. 101.5 is a very fitting “middle of the road” type of outcome for Pittsburgh this year. Good health and a fine run of play could send the Pens over that number, perhaps even by a handful of points with about 110 being a best case scenario. However, if negative things happen, getting to 102 points or more is not a guarantee and it’s conceivable Pittsburgh ends up somewhere in the 90’s.

The lines are in place to get close to even action on both sides, and 101.5 is a good way to get there. But what say you?