Best Bets for the eNASCAR iRacing Pro Invitational Series at Talladega Superspeedway

Apr 25, 2020 - 10:57 AM

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The eNASCAR iRacing Pro Invitational Series has turned into the William Byron show the past two races. He’s led 210 of 304 total laps — that’s almost 70 percent of them.

That said, both of those races took place on short tracks. This Sunday’s event at Talladega marks the first Superspeedway race we’ve seen in this series, so we don’t know what to expect.

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Background

I changed up my strategy before last week’s race at Richmond and it paid off. Instead of supplementing iRacing data with real-life numbers, I decided to focus solely on virtual results. While it gives us a smaller sample size, the series has gotten more predictable now that Byron is closing out races.

That said, we don’t have any data on Superspeedway tracks. NASCAR will also test out a new inversion rule this week, as they’re sending the previous week’s top finishers to the rear of the starting order. That’s terrible news for both William Byron and Timmy Hill.

Betting Odds

Here are the lines posted over at William Hill.

Driver	Odds
William Byron	+300
Dale Earnhardt, Jr	+750
Timmy Hill	+750
Denny Hamlin	+1000
Kyle Busch	+1200
Parker Kligerman	+1500
Ryan Preece	+1500
John Hunter Nemechek	+1800
Landon Cassill	+1800
Garrett Smithley	+1800
Michael McDowell	+2500
Alex Bowman	+2800
Matt DiBenedetto	+3000
Brad Keselowski	+3000
Bobby Labonte	+3500
Joey Logano	+4000
Ross Chastain	+4000
Chase Elliott	+4000
Ricky Stenhouse, Jr	+4000
Austin Dillon	+4000
Erik Jones	+4000
Clint Bowyer	+4000
Tyler Reddick	+5000
Kevin Harvick	+5000
Jeff Gordon	+5000
Cole Custer	+6000
Kurt Busch	+6000
Jimmie Johnson	+6000
Aric Almirola	+6000
Daniel Suarez	+6000
Chris Buescher	+6000
Ty Dillon	+6000
Brennan Poole	+7500
Joey Gase	+7500
Ryan Blaney	+7500
Corey LaJoie	+10000
Chad Finchum	+12500
JJ Yeley	+15000

We’ve got a much more crowded field this weekend, and we’ll get to see both Dale Jr. and Jeff Gordon in the same race for the first time in years.

William Byron remains the heavy betting favorite, but his +300 odds reflect Talladega’s unpredictable nature. Dale Jr. and Timmy Hill are the only other guys with odds shorter than four digits, and Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch are the next safest bets to win. Then you’ve got the usual suspects around +1500: Kligerman, Preece, Nemechek, Cassill, and Smithley.

From what we’ve seen of this series so far, Sunday’s winner should come from that shortlist.

Analysis and Suggested Pick

My betting philosophy is if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. In my opinion, the formula we identified last week should still pay out at Talledega: take Byron to win and take Hill to beat Byron. Laying both sides of this bet would’ve made you money after each race this year.

You should take Byron to win (+300) because he’s dominated the series so far. I already mentioned that he’s led 70 percent of the laps in the last two races, but his success extends further — he’s led 318 of 534 overall laps, good for 60 percent. Sure, he’ll have to compete in the draft and start from the back on Sunday, but he’s given us little reason to doubt him so far.

You should take Hill to beat Byron (+155) because, well, Byron could slip up. And if he does, Hill should be able to bring his car home ahead of him. Hill has an average finish of 2.25. His worst finish in this series is third place. As long as you put a single unit on both lines here, you’re almost guaranteed to profit.

That said, Talladega is just the track to break this bet. Someone could take Hill out early in the race, and Byron may struggle to replicate his dominance in the draft. Superspeedway aces Denny Hamlin (+1000), Brad Keselowski (+3000), and Joey Logano (+4000) are strong contenders if my eNASCAR betting formula doesn’t interest you.

Suggested Prop Bets

William Hill started to offer some head-to-head prop lines last weekend. And aside from the Byron v. Hill prop, they have another line I like this weekend.

I think Joey Logano (+105) can beat Brad Keselowski on Sunday. Both drivers have tons of real-life success at Superspeedways, but Logano’s been the better driver in iRacing so far. While he struggled last weekend, Logano beat Keselowski at both Homestead-Miami and Bristol, and I’d look for him to do it again.

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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.

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