Australian Open Women’s Final Match Odds, Picks and Betting Preview

Feb 19, 2021 - 11:02 PM

After two weeks of grueling matches featuring the best women’s tennis players in the world, the 2021 Australian Open women’s champion is set to be crowned on Saturday. The women’s final features a three-time major winner in Japan’s Naomi Osaka, going up against a first-time major finalist in American Jennifer Brady. 

The match is set to get underway in the wee hours of Saturday morning here in the United States. Whether you are hitting the record button to take in the match over Saturday morning breakfast or are among those who will find a way to stay up and watch it live, the Australian Open women’s final is one not to miss.

Predictably, the higher-seeded Osaka is a hefty betting favorite in this grand slam final. Her past major victories, along with her stellar play throughout this Australian Open, are justification enough for her to be the favorite. Will she capture her fourth grand slam championship? Or will Brady spring a major upset and become a grand slam champion in her own right? The following contains the match details, betting odds, and best bets for the Australian Open women’s final.

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Australian Open Women’s Final Details

(3) Naomi Osaka vs. (22) Jennifer Brady
Date: Saturday, Feb. 20, 2021
Venue: Rod Laver Arena — Melbourne, AU
Start Time: 3:30 a.m. EST
Coverage: ESPN

Australian Open Women’s Final Betting Odds and Picks

All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Moneyline: Osaka: (-500) | Brady: (+390)
Games Spread: Osaka: -4.5 (-143) | Brady: +4.5 (+116)
Total Games: 20.5 — Over: (+100) | Under: (-124)

We knew going into the semifinals that the winner of Naomi Osaka’s match against Serena Williams would be a sizable favorite in the Australian Open final. Osaka dispatched her childhood idol in straight sets, 6-3 6-4, to advance. The result marked her fifth victory at this year’s Aussie Open that was decided in straight sets. Osaka’s lone match that went the distance came in her fourth-round win over Garbine Muguruza. 

For Osaka, this match presents her with the opportunity to win her second Australian Open title. All three of her previous grand slam championships came on the hardcourt surface, and she is again showing her prowess on the surface in Melbourne this year. Including her win over Williams, Osaka is now a perfect 4-0 in major semifinal matches. She has also never lost in a major final. Case in point, if Osaka is still around this deep in a grand slam tournament, she’s extremely tough to beat.

Jennifer Brady is the woman tasked with trying to do just that in this year’s Australian Open women’s final. Brady was able to knock off Czech player Karolina Muchova in the semifinals in a match that went a full three sets, 6-4, 3-6, 6-4. Perhaps nerves were the primary culprit, but Brady was plagued by unforced errors throughout her semifinal match. Despite appearing to be by far the better player, Brady was pushed to a third set and won the match on an epic 18-point final game.

If Brady was feeling pressure as a betting favorite in the semis, that pressure has fully dissipated ahead of the championship match. She is a sizable underdog at nearly 4-1 odds, but bettors shouldn’t dismiss this final as a sure win for Osaka just yet. 

Naomi Osaka vs. Jennifer Brady Head-to-Head History

The two women have met in three prior matches, most recently in last year’s U.S. Open semifinals. Osaka won that match by the score of 7-6 (1) 3-6 6-3 and holds a 2-1 edge in the all-time head-to-head series. Brady’s lone win came all the way back in 2014, but last year’s U.S. Open match would indicate that perhaps the two are more evenly matched than some might think.

Naomi Osaka vs. Jennifer Brady Prediction

It may be her first grand slam finals appearance, but Jennifer Brady simply has nothing to lose on Saturday. Next to no one expects her to win this match, so why not go out with a loose and free mentality and throw caution to the wind? The fact that she took Osaka to a third set in last year’s U.S. Open is encouraging for bettors looking to back the American underdog. 

I’m not going to go as far as calling an outright match upset, but I am intrigued by the game spread of 4.5. Brady’s semifinal match itself was a perfect example of how the underdog can find a way to cover a spread of this size despite being the inferior player. Even if one wipes away the second set won by Muchova, a pair of 6-4 set wins by Brady would not have covered the spread. Osaka is the better player here, but I’m not sold on her utterly dominating this championship match.

Best Match Bet: Jennifer Brady +4.5 Games (+116 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

Other Picks to Consider

Most Double Faults: Naomi Osaka -0.5 (-104)
Set 1 Total Games: Over 9.5 (+120)
Total Service Breaks: Under 6.5 (-112)

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Henry John is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Henry, check out his archive and follow him @HankTimeSports.

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