Wimbledon 2022 Men’s Final Odds & Pick: Novak Djokovic vs. Nick Kyrgios

Jul 9, 2022 - 11:26 AM

Let’s dig into Sunday 2022 Wimbledon final between Novak Djokovic and Nick Kyrgios. Here are is our top pick for Sunday’s showdown.

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Novak Djokovic’s Path to the Wimbledon Finals

d. S. Kwon 6-3, 3-6, 6-3, 6-4, d. T. Kokkinakis 6-1, 6-4, 6-2, d. M. Kecmanovic 6-0, 6-3, 6-4, d. T. van Rijthoven 6-2, 4-6, 6-1, 6-2, d. J. Sinner 5-7, 2-6, 6-3, 6-2, 6-2, d. C. Norrie 2-6, 6-3, 6-2, 6-4

Nick Kyrgios’s Path to the Wimbledon Finals

d. P. Jubb 3-6, 6-1, 7-5, 6-7, 7-5, d. F. Krajinovic 6-2, 6-3, 6-1, d. S. Tsitsipas 6-7, 6-4, 6-3, 7-6, d. B. Nakashima 4-6, 6-4, 7-6, 3-6, 6-2, d. C. Garin 6-4, 6-3, 7-6, d. R. Nadal (walkover)

Novak Djokovic vs. Nick Kyrgios

It seems like ages ago that anyone beat Djokovic at the All England Club. He has won 27 consecutive matches at Wimbledon and did not panic after losing the first set in his semifinal match against Cameron Norrie. Quite the opposite, Djokovic raised his game to a superhuman level and won his 43rd match at a Major after dropping the first set. Per ESPN Stats & Info, that moves him to second place in the Open Era and trails only Andre Agassi’s 44 such wins.

After Djokovic lost 13 service points in the first set, he lost a total of six in the next two. First serve percentage was the key, as his percentage in the first set was a paltry 55%. However, Djokovic hit 38 winners and 13 aces and did not face a single break point in any of the final three sets. In the process, he kept alive the streak of not being beaten in a grass-court tournament in four years.

In 2014, Kyrgios upset Rafael Nadal at Wimbledon, and many thought they were witnessing the start of an extraordinary career. Unfortunately, things have not panned out that way for the Australian, whose career accolades are limited by playing in the era of the Big Three. One could argue that the only reason Kyrgios is in the final is that this year’s Wimbledon was played without Roger Federer, world No. 1 Daniil Medvedev, Mateo Berrettini, Marin Cilic, and that he did not have to face Rafael Nadal in the semifinals. However, that would not do justice to how well Kyrgios has played to this point or that he has won 13 of his 15 matches on grass this year.

Kyrgios has rode a powerful serve to six straight victories at Wimbledon. Coming into the tournament, his serve rating of 298.9 was the third-best on tour, behind only John Isner and Reilly Opelka. And he has used that serve to frustrate Djokovic in their only two career meetings, beating the Serbian 7-6, 7-5 in Acapulco in 2017 and 6-4, 7-6 at Indian Wells the same year.

Had Wimbledon been any old ATP tournament, Djokovic’s bags would already be packed as he lost the first two sets to Jannik Sinner. But that is why Djokovic is so hard to beat in Grand Slams (333-47, 87.6% winning percentage in Majors), as it is nearly impossible to keep mentally focused and physically fit enough to outlast him over five sets. Djokovic will test Kyrgios’ grit by trying to extend rallies and trade as many groundstrokes as possible. Kyrgios does have a massive advantage of extra rest before this match, but that will not be enough to dethrone the defending three-time champion.

As is often the case with Djokovic’s matches, his -425 moneyline odds are too steep, so we will opt for better value and expect him to win the match in four sets, figuring Kyrgios’ serve and his head-to-head success against Djokovic is good enough to earn him at least one set.

Bet: Novak Djokovic to win 3 Sets to 1 (+280 at DraftKings)  

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