2022 US Open: Rafael Nadal Betting Odds, Picks & Prediction

Aug 29, 2022 - 9:33 AM

Men’s tennis has been heavily dominated by the “Big Three” of Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, and Roger Federer for the last two decades. However, the U.S. Open has been the most volatile of the four Grand Slam events in crowning other champions. Djokovic and Nadal won four titles in five years, from 2015-19. However, Dominic Thiem and Daniil Medvedev have won the last two U.S. Opens, with wins by Andy Murray, Marin Cilic, and Stan Wawrinka mixed in over the last decade.

This year’s U.S. Open is even more open on the men’s side after the not-so-shocking announcement that Novak Djokovic would be ineligible to play because of his vaccination status. Thus, Nadal must be the torch bearer as the lone “Big Three” participant. So is it his to win, or will yet another new player throw their name into the mix of Grand Slam champions?

This is the first annual BettingPros Guide to the U.S. Open, where we will highlight several of the top contenders from both the Men’s and Women’s Draws.

Read on for our thoughts and predictions for Rafael Nadal at the U.S. Open in 2022.

U.S. Open 2022 Betting Odds, Preview & Predictions

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Rafael Nadal Stats to Know

  • Odds to Win: +400 (DraftKings)
  • World Ranking: 3
  • Best U.S. Open Finish: Four-time Winner
  • Last 4 U.S. Open Finishes: A, A, W, SF
  • Last 4 tournament finishes: R32 Cincinnati, SF (Wimbledon), W (French Open), R16 (Rome)

Rafael Nadal U.S. Open History

Nadal is ending a two-year absence at the U.S. Open. He did not participate in 2020, citing concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic, and a chronic foot injury ended his season early last year, leaving him unable to play in the last Grand Slam of the calendar year. Before the absence, Nadal won two U.S. Open titles in three years, and a victory this year would be his fifth, tying him for fourth all-time with Pete Sampras, Jimmy Connors, and Roger Federer.

Rafael Nadal Recent Form

Nadal has played much less tennis of late than most of his competition, as he was forced out of action for the last month and a half with an abdominal tear that caused him to withdraw from Wimbledon. Nadal became the first player to withdraw from Wimbledon in a semifinal or later in the modern era. His Round of 32 loss at Cincinnati to Borna Coric looks better in hindsight considering Coric went on to win the tournament.

Rafael Nadal U.S. Open Predictions

Nadal’s odds improved from +500 to +400 after it was announced Djokovic would not be participating. All things considered, the four-time U.S. Open champion was given a path that should see him get to the semifinals at a minimum, as the steepest competition in his quarter should come from Cameron Norrie or Andrey Rublev. We like Nadal to win this quarter but cannot back him at his short odds to win the title as it is unclear how much his abdominal injury will be a hindrance over the next two weeks.

The Pick: Nadal to Win the Quarter (-110 on DraftKings)

U.S. Open 2022 Betting Odds, Preview & Predictions

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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