2022 US Open Betting Guide: Top Odds, Picks & Prediction

Aug 29, 2022 - 10:16 AM

Men’s tennis has been heavily dominated by the “Big Three” of Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, and Roger Federer for the last two decades. However, the U.S. Open has been the most volatile of the four Grand Slam events in crowning other champions. Djokovic and Nadal won four titles in five years, from 2015-19. However, Dominic Thiem and Daniil Medvedev have won the last two U.S. Opens, with wins by Andy Murray, Marin Cilic, and Stan Wawrinka mixed in over the last decade.

This year’s U.S. Open is even more open on the men’s side after the not-so-shocking announcement that Novak Djokovic would be ineligible to play because of his vaccination status. Thus, Nadal must be the torch bearer as the lone “Big Three” participant. So is it his to win, or will yet another new player throw their name into the mix of Grand Slam champions?

This is the first annual BettingPros Guide to the U.S. Open, where we will highlight several of the top contenders from both the Men’s and Women’s Draws.

Read on for our thoughts and predictions for Daniil Medvedev at the U.S. Open in 2022.

U.S. Open 2022 Betting Odds, Preview & Predictions

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2022 US Open Betting Guide: Top Odds, Picks & Prediction

Rafael Nadal

Nadal’s odds improved from +500 to +400 after it was announced Djokovic would not be participating. All things considered, the four-time U.S. Open champion was given a path that should see him get to the semifinals at a minimum, as the steepest competition in his quarter should come from Cameron Norrie or Andrey Rublev. We like Nadal to win this quarter but cannot back him at his short odds to win the title as it is unclear how much his abdominal injury will be a hindrance over the next two weeks.

The Pick: Nadal to Win the Quarter (-110 on DraftKings)

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia

Alcaraz’s odds dropped from +500 to +550 after Djokovic was announced as ineligible for the tournament, which speaks to the abundance of landmines in his quarter. Alcaraz has a potentially tricky matchup as early as the third round against Borna Coric, who just won the Cincinnati Masters. Further down the road, he could face 2014 U.S. Open winner Marin Cilic and then Hubert Hurkacz or Jannik Sinner, the latter of which has won five ATP hard-court tournaments in his young career. Thus, Alcaraz is more likely to lose as early as the third or fourth round than he is to win his quarter.

The Pick: Fourth-Round Exit for Alcaraz

Nick Kyrgios

There is no doubt that Kyrgios has been impressive this year, and his run to the finals of Wimbledon was captivating and must-watch television. However, we want to see him be more consistent, especially in Grand Slams, before we are “all-in” on his career resurrection. Kyrgios has a roadblock against defending champion Daniil Medvedev. Even though the Australian is 3-1 in his career against Medvedev, we give the nod to the Russian in that potential matchup.

The Pick: Kyrgios Fourth-Round Loss to Medvedev

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Tsitsipas is favored to win his quarter, one that also features big-serving American Taylor Fritz and Matteo Berrettini. However, seeing as the Greek has never made it past the third round in Flushing Meadows, we cannot get too excited about his prospects of a deep run this year. In addition, the New York crowd can be ruthless and unforgiving, and many will still root against Tsitsipas for his antics against Murray.

The Pick: Tsitsipas Will Not Win His Quarter

Daniil Medvedev

With Djokovic not being allowed to participate in this event, Medvedev is now the betting favorite, and his odds jumped from +260 (before Djokovic’s news) to +225. However, he was not given any favors with his draw, as a potential meeting with Nick Kyrgios in the Round of 16 awaits. Medvedev should be considered head-and-shoulders above every other player in his section, so he is worth a shot to defend his title, as long as he can overcome the 1-3 head-to-head record against Kyrgios, or avoid him entirely.

The Pick: Medvedev to Win the U.S. Open (+225 on DraftKings)

Iga Swiatek

Swiatek is far from the dominant player she was during her historic winning streak, and it is fair to wonder how much her confidence is shaken entering this tournament. With American Jessica Pegula playing the best tennis of her career and former Grand Slam winners Petra Kvitova and Garbine Muguruza in her own quarter, Swiatek is not even a lock to make the semifinals. Thus, if wagering on Swiatek, we would not advise backing her to do anything but win her quarter, as the odds are too short for her to reach the final (+250) or to win the title (+400).

The Pick: Swiatek to Win Her Quarter (+125 on DraftKings)

Simona Halep

Halep’s quarter looks the most difficult to predict, as it is the only quarter with three women (Cori Gauff and Caroline Garcia, the others) with +500 odds or shorter to reach the semifinals. Whatever woman makes it out of this quarter will have earned it. And provided they have something left in the tank, they would be highly favored to go on to win the title. Thus, with so many potential landmines before the semifinals, the best way to get onside Halep winning the U.S. Open is to predict that someone from her quarter will go on to victory, which acts as a hedge of sorts.

The Pick: Third Quarter Winner to Win the U.S. Open (+210 on DraftKings)

Naomi Osaka

Naomi Osaka’s odds have plummeted in recent weeks from as high as +900 now to +2500 in the wake of her recent injury. The four-time Grand Slam winner has not advanced beyond the third round of a major since winning the 2021 Australian Open and now opens this tournament against Danielle Collins, who was ranked as high as No. 7 in the world just a month ago. Osaka should have enough to win the tricky first-round match against Collins (2-0 head-to-head against her in her career). Still, she is not fit enough or playing well enough to beat out Aryna Sabalenka, Elena Rybakina, Emma Raducanu, Belinda Bencic, and others in her own quarter.

The Pick: Osaka to Lose Before the Quarterfinals 

Elena Rybakina

Rybakina’s odds of winning the U.S. Open dropped from +1200 to +1700 after the draws were announced, as her draw is loaded with several top-notch players. Rybakina would have to beat out Aryna Sabalenka, Emma Raducanu, Belinda Bencic, Naomi Osaka, Paula Badosa, Victoria Azarenka, and Karolina Pliskova (those are all the women with odds of +1000 or shorter) to advance to the semifinals. However, the powerful Rybakina has the talent necessary to make a semifinal run, and given the strength of her quarter, her +550 odds to do so presents a good value.

The Pick: Rybakina to Win Her Quarter (+550 on DraftKings)

Cori Gauff

Gauff’s quarter looks the most difficult to predict, as it is the only quarter with three women (Simona Halep and Caroline Garcia, the others) with +500 odds or shorter to reach the semifinals. Whatever woman makes it out of this quarter will have earned it. And provided they have something left in the tank, they would be highly favored to go on to win the title. Thus, with so many potential landmines before the semifinals, the best way to get onside Gauff winning the U.S. Open is to predict that someone from her quarter will go on to victory, which acts as a hedge of sorts.

The Pick: Third Quarter Winner to Win the U.S. Open (+210 on DraftKings)

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