U.S. Open 2022: Women’s Final Preview and Prediction

Sep 9, 2022 - 10:31 AM

The Women’s draw at the U.S. Open was not without its surprises or upsets. However, the last two women standing and competing for the Grand Slam title are the top two ranked women in the Race to the WTA Finals: No. 1 Iga Swiatek and No. 2 Ons Jabeur. Jabeur is through to her second consecutive major final after finishing runner-up at Wimbledon. At the same time, Swiatek has reached her first Grand Slam final outside of the French Open and is looking for her third major title overall.

Read on for our thoughts and predictions for the Women’s final at the 2022 U.S. Open.

Ons Jabeur vs. Iga Swiatek Prediction

If Iga Swiatek were to win this match, it would be her 57th of the year, which would tie her for the most wins in a calendar year with Ashleigh Barty’s 57 in 2019. In addition, it would be her seventh WTA title, which would make her the first woman to win that many in a year since Serena Williams won seven in 2014. She has been successful all season, specifically in majors, as she is an impressive 20-2 in the four events combined this year.

Swiatek has had a reputation for simply being a clay-court specialist. And when her winning streak of 37 consecutive matches was snapped at Wimbledon, and she lost six more matches before the start of this tournament, many started to wonder if Swiatek had lost a step or if there were mental hurdles she could not clear. However, Iga has proved why she is the world No. 1 with a dominant run in Flushing Meadows thus far.

Ons Jabeur made quick work of Caroline Garcia, who entered the semifinals on a 13-match winning streak. The dominant 6-1, 6-3 victory improved her record to 6-0 in semifinals this year, which has to give her confidence entering this match. However, perhaps Swiatek’s experience in the semifinals will serve her better, as she overcame a 2-4 deficit in the third set to win four straight games and 16 of the final 20 points. The knock on Swiatek was that she was not challenged to this point, but she has now beaten back-to-back players ranked eighth or better.

Swiatek’s streak of eight consecutive wins over top-10 opponents in straight sets was snapped with her three-set victory against Aryna Sabalenka. That obviously does not put into question her ability to win this match, but her overall lack of success on hard courts (specifically ones playing this fast) compared to other surfaces gives us slight pause.

Jabeur beat Swiatek in straight sets 6-3, 6-3 the last time they met on hard courts in Cincinnati earlier this year. Swiatek is still a worthy favorite despite that result, but we find value in this match going three sets, which does not often happen when she plays a top-ten opponent.

Bet: Jabeur-Swiatek Over 2.5 Sets (+135 at DraftKings)  

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