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Brewers-Reds Preview

Oct 2, 2010 - 5:59 AM By KATE HEDLIN STATS Writer

Milwaukee (76-83) at Cincinnati (89-70), 1:10 p.m. EDT

Homer Bailey hasn't won every time out since his return from the disabled list less than two months ago, but the Cincinnati Reds' success with him on the mound will be difficult to ignore when it's time to make a decision about the postseason rotation.

On Saturday, Bailey looks to improve his chances of starting in the playoffs while earning his first win in four starts against the Milwaukee Brewers.

While Bronson Arroyo and Johnny Cueto figure to be locks for two of the rotation spots in the NL division series for Cincinnati (89-71), given that they combined for 29 wins, the final one may still be up for grabs.

Bailey (4-3, 4.59 ERA) could give himself an edge with another solid outing. Despite missing almost three months with shoulder inflammation, he's been strong since returning, going 3-1 with a 3.71 ERA in nine starts, eight of which the Reds have won.

The right-hander won for the first time in seven outings Sunday against San Diego. He allowed two runs on a pair of second-inning homers, and struck out six in seven innings of a 12-2 victory.

"He was getting strike one. After that inning, he was almost unhittable," manager Dusty Baker said.

Bailey, who has allowed four runs and has struck out 13 in his last 13 innings, will have a tough act to follow after Travis Wood allowed three runs, three hits and struck out six in 6 1-3 innings of a 4-3, 11-inning loss Friday.

Casey McGehee hit a grounder that bounced off Brandon Phillips' chest and went into center field, allowing Corey Hart to score the go-ahead run in the 11th.

"Once I saw it, it was almost past me," said Phillips, a Gold Glove winner in 2008. "I still almost caught it. It's something that just happened."

The loss means the Reds will open the playoffs on the road against Philadelphia or the winner of the NL West.

Bailey has no record and a 3.79 ERA in three starts against Milwaukee this season with Cincinnati winning all of them. He gave up two runs and struck out seven in six innings of a 5-2 victory Sept. 20

Bailey was opposed in that game by Chris Capuano (4-4, 3.75), who takes the mound Saturday looking to finish the season strong after a solid September.

Against the Reds, the left-hander yielded two runs and four hits through six innings, but didn't receive a decision. Capuano followed that by beating Florida on Sunday, allowing a run and four hits in six innings of the 7-1 rout.

Capuano went 2-2 with a 2.37 ERA in five September starts. He had spent most of the season coming out of the bullpen after being sidelined the last two years following Tommy John surgery.

The Brewers (77-83) have won four straight and eight of 10. The Reds need one win to reach 90 for the first time since 1999.