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Powerful Pats aiming to clinch AFC at Bills' expense

Dec 24, 2010 - 7:57 PM (Sports Network) - Just one win away from having home-field advantage in the postseason, the New England Patriots couldn't be happier with making a trip to Buffalo this weekend to play the Bills.

The Patriots can lock up the AFC East title for the seventh time in the past eight seasons this Sunday, when they shoot for a seventh straight victory overall and 15th in a row over the Bills in a meeting at Ralph Wilson Stadium.

At 12-2, the Patriots are tied with the Atlanta Falcons for the best record in the NFL and own a two-game lead over the New York Jets in the division. A victory this Sunday or a loss by the Jets to the Chicago Bears will guarantee New England first place in the AFC East for a second straight season, a first- round bye and the conference's No. 1 overall seed.

The Patriots, who haven't lost since Nov. 7 in Cleveland, are coming off last weekend's 31-27 home win over the Green Bay Packers. Tom Brady threw a pair of touchdown passes, one of which was set up by 313-pound offensive lineman Dan Connolly's 71-yard return on a squib kick in the second quarter.

"I've never seen anything happen so slow in my life. It was an unbelievable play," Brady said of Connolly's return. "I can never imagine anything like that is going to happen, and that really was a big play in the game. So if it happens, we've got to take advantage of it. They won't be kicking to him anymore, I'll tell you that."

Connolly did exit the game with a concussion and is questionable for this contest.

New England likely won't need similar heroics this weekend, given Brady's lifetime numbers against the Bills. He is 16-1 in his career as a starter against Buffalo with 36 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. The talented signal- caller set an NFL record last week with his seventh straight game of at least two touchdown passes without an interception, breaking Don Meredith's record.

Even though the Bills are last in the AFC East with just a 4-10 mark, the Patriots can't take the club lightly. Buffalo has won two straight and four of its last six games since an 0-8 start as it tries to build something for next season.

"I think it's important for every person, every member of the organization -- not just a young player, but all of us -- to maintain our focus, keep our eye on the target, not worry about anything but Buffalo," said Patriots head coach Bill Belichick.

"That's really all there is right now, and just take everything else and push it to the side a little bit and try to make sure that we did a good job on our preparations and make sure that we don't take anything for granted, do all the little things that we need to do and put all our energy and emphasis in that."

The Bills ended the Dolphins' playoff chances with a 17-14 victory in Miami last Sunday, putting Buffalo in position to win three straight for the first time since opening the 2008 campaign 4-0.

"I've probably overused the word character, but I don't know if you can because that's what it's all about with this group," Bills head coach Chan Gailey said on Monday. "They've got a great deal of character. They continue to work hard. They continue to go about the business of trying to get better each week."

While he hasn't had the success of Brady, Buffalo quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick still brings an impressive streak into this game, as he has a touchdown pass in 15 straight outings. He had a pair of scoring throws last weekend and needs two more to join Jim Kelly and Joe Ferguson as the only Bills quarterbacks to have at least 25 in a season.

SERIES HISTORY

The Patriots own a 59-40-1 edge over the Bills in a series that dates back to 1960 and defeated Buffalo for the 19th time in the last 20 meetings between the teams with a 38-30 Week 3 win in September. The victory was New England's 14th in a row over the Bills, who last bested the Pats with a 31-0 triumph at Ralph Wilson Stadium in 2003, and six of the wins during the streak have taken place in Buffalo.

The clubs have also met once in the postseason, a 26-8 New England road victory in a 1963 AFL Division Playoff.

Belichick holds a 19-3 career record against the Bills, including a stellar 19-2 mark while with New England. Gailey is 0-2 lifetime versus the Pats, including a 13-6 setback while the head coach of the Dallas Cowboys in 1999, and went head-to-head with Belichick for the first time in Week 3.

WHEN THE PATRIOTS HAVE THE BALL

New England leads the NFL in scoring (31.9 ppg) and has gone over the 30-point mark in each contest during its six-game win streak. Brady (3561 passing yards, 31 TD, 4 INT) is having yet another MVP-type season and completed a pair of touchdown passes to tight end Aaron Hernandez (45 receptions, 6 TD) last Sunday. While Brady was held under 200 yards passing for just the second time in his last eight games -- ending with 163 on 15-of-24 passing -- he hasn't been picked off in a club-record 292 straight pass attempts, 16 shy of Bernie Kosar's record of 308 set with Cleveland from 1990-91. New England did hold the ball for just 19:12 in last week's win, and the club had just 16 rush attempts in the game. Nine of those were by playmaker Danny Woodhead (435 rushing yards, 31 receptions, 5 total TD), who gained 59 yards. Running back BenJarvus Green-Ellis (824 rushing yards, 12 TD) added a 33-yard touchdown run in the first quarter. Hernandez ended with a team-leading four catches for 31 yards, while wide receiver Wes Welker (83 receptions, 7 TD) had three catches for a club-high 42 yards. Wideout Deion Branch (46 receptions, 5 TD) hauled in a pair of passes for 33 yards for New England's 10th-ranked passing game (242.5 ypg).

Buffalo's secondary figures to see a lot of action in this one with Brady under center. Cornerbacks Terrence McGee (17 tackles) and Drayton Florence (51 tackles, 3 INT) will have their hands full in covering Welker and Branch, while safeties Donte Whitner (124 tackles, 1 INT) and Jairus Byrd (75 tackles, 1 sack) will have to be on their toes as well. Though the Patriots will also likely test the Bills' 32nd-ranked run defense (158.6 ypg), the unit did hold the Dolphins to just 65 yards rushing last weekend. Whitner paced the club with eight tackles, while Florence had seven. Rookie linebacker Arthur Moats (27 tackles, 3 sacks) ended with six tackles and 1 1/2 sacks, while Byrd also got to Miami quarterback Chad Henne. Linebacker Paul Posluszny (126 tackles, 2 sacks) added to his team-leading tackle total with six stops last week and safety George Wilson (31 tackles, 2 INT) recorded an interception. Buffalo does rank near the bottom of the league with a minus-five turnover ratio. Nose tackle Kyle Williams (70 tackles, 5 sacks) and his 306-pound frame clogs the middle.

WHEN THE BILLS HAVE THE BALL

The Bills were able to pick up the victory last weekend despite getting outgained by a 326-282 margin and they rank 24th in total offense (310.5 ypg) and 23rd in scoring (19.5 ppg). Buffalo's run game couldn't get going against Miami, with running back Fred Jackson (811 rushing yards, 7 total TD) leading the way with just 36 yards on 15 carries. Fitzpatrick (2749 passing yards, 23 TD, 12 INT) was second with 19 yards on three carries and completed 16-of-26 pass attempts for 223 yards. Fitzpatrick hit on touchdown passes of 18 yards to David Nelson (31 receptions, 3 TD) in the first quarter and 15 yards to Steve Johnson (72 receptions, 10 TD) in the third. Johnson led the club with six catches for 69 yards and needs to haul in just two more scoring throws to pass Bill Brooks' 11 for the most in a single season in club history, set in 1995. Johnson is also just 57 yards shy of hitting the 1,000-yard mark for the season. Nelson, an undrafted free agent, had 61 yards on three receptions and has scored a touchdown in three straight games.

Though coming off a victory, the Patriots can't be too happy that they let inexperienced Packers quarterback Matt Flynn throw three touchdown passes in last week's game. New England is tied for 30th in the NFL with an average of 263.3 passing yards allowed per game, but they did sack Flynn five times while also getting a 36-yard pick-six from cornerback Kyle Arrington (62 tackles, 1 INT). One of those sacks came as time expired, with linebacker Tully Banta-Cain (38 tackles, 5 sacks) also stripping the ball on the quarterback takedown and nose tackle Vince Wilfork (50 tackles) recovering. Linebacker Jerod Mayo (164 tackles, 1 sack) had a monster game with 16 tackles and rookie cornerback Devin McCourty (77 tackles, 1 sack, 6 sacks) had 10 stops and a sack. Linebackers Rob Ninkovich (53 tackles, 2 sacks, 2 INT) and Dane Fletcher (16 tackles, 1 sack) also had sacks, as did defensive end Eric Moore, who could see more action this weekend with defensive linemen Mike Wright (concussion), Myron Pryor (back), Brandon Deaderick (shoulder) and Ron Brace (concussion) all questionable. Linebacker Gary Guyton (55 tackles, 2 sacks, 2 INT) finished with eight tackles last week and safety Patrick Chung (87 tackles, 2 INT) had six.

FANTASY FOCUS

It's championship week in most leagues, and Brady owners couldn't be happier with this matchup. Welker, Branch, Green-Ellis and Hernandez should all find their way into lineups as well. New England's defense is still a risk due to its inexperience, and the club did allow 30 points in its last meeting with Buffalo. Kicker Shayne Graham should get plenty of chances in this one and has hit all nine of his field goal attempts this season, though none longer than 41 yards.

New England's struggles against the pass make Fitzpatrick, Johnson and Jackson worthy starts, but don't expect too much from the trio. Brady is likely to light up Buffalo's defense, so the unit should be avoided. Bills kicker Rian Lindell has attempted 20 field goals this season, missing five of them.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

Trends are trends for a reason, and no one can deny that the Patriots and Brady enter this matchup red-hot. With home-field advantage and a bye on the line, Belichick won't let his team come into this game looking ahead to the postseason, which is bad news for the Bills and their series losing streak. New England's offense is just too much for Buffalo to handle at this point in the season, and Brady should continue his statistical assault on the team from western New York.

Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Patriots 35, Bills 20